NFL Breakout Data

Breakout Candidates For 2025

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Dynasty Players are an inpatient bunch. Drugged up on an intense regimen of YouTube, Spotify, and Twitter content, fantasy managers fidget compulsively and go crazy with pursuing roster perfection. “Should I buy?! How long should I hold?!? What will happen if I sell too early?!?!?” So much of our investment in a player is wrapped up in one singular hope - A Potential Breakout. Like teenagers waiting to hit puberty, dynasty managers agonize over WHEN and IF their players will achieve the sought-after “Elite Social Status.” To set your minds more at ease, the research in this article is dedicated to answering one major question: “When Does Each Position Breakout In The NFL?”

Setup

The sample of this data includes every Top-12 finisher in PPR formats for each position from 2019 to 2024. In each dataset, you will find the Player, their Breakout Age, their Breakout Year, how many Seasons into their NFL journey until they had a Breakout Season (from the time they were drafted/undrafted), and how many Total Top-12 Seasons they have had during their career. An asterisk next to a QB’s Breakout Season signifies that the quarterback did not start a full season in their rookie year, either due to being their team’s backup quarterback or missing multiple games with an injury. For every skill position, an asterisk denotes the player missed more than one game with an injury during their first season. In addition to each of these metrics, I account for Outlier Players at each position, the Percentages for each level of Breakout Experience, and also the Percentage of Players who have had only one Top-12 Season. The data for this research was sourced from Sleeper, FantasyPros, PlayerProfiler, and Pro Football Reference.

QB

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• Second Earliest Breakout (BO) Season behind RBs

• Highest percentage amongst all positions of BOs in the 2nd season (43.75%)

• 71.88% of all QBs in the sample broke out in their rookie or sophomore season

• QBs that broke out in Year-3 or later were typically associated with players who endured early career injuries or were stuck behind an established starter

QB Breakout Candidates

1st Year

Cam Ward - The 1.01 pick and projected Day-1 starter for the Tennessee Titans, Cam Ward stands out as a top 5-8 QB prospect over the last five draft classes. Boasting elite-level college production (record for NCAA passing TDs - 156) and experience (57 starts across three schools), Ward enters the NFL with high-end arm talent, routinely making accurate throws from unconventional angles, and above-average mobility. Despite having a lackluster cast of weapons at his disposal, the Titans' upgrades on the offensive line and QB-friendly coaching from Callahan may be enough to elevate Cam Ward into Top-12 status his first year.

2nd Year 

Caleb Williams & J.J. McCarthy - Who is better set up for success in 2025 than Caleb or McCarthy? Both QBs are entering their sophomore seasons with two of the best offensive-minded coaches in the NFL. Ben Johnson has made it clear that the #1 reason he came to Chicago was to coach Caleb Williams. Kevin O’Connell passed on a veteran QB in Sam Darnold, who took the Vikings to the playoffs after a 14-win season, in favor of the rookie McCarthy. The Bears and Vikings are loaded with talented playmakers on offense. Which QB will reign as King of the NFC North is difficult to discern, but both have a great opportunity to break out in 2025.

Darkhorse - Michael Penix - The Falcons' second-year QB may not have the same ensemble of coaches and playmakers as his classmates in the North, but Bijan, London, and Mooney are still one hell of a trio on offense. If Kyle Pitts gets his shit together, then Atlanta can quickly become a force to be reckoned with.

RB

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• Earliest Breakouts Amongst All Positions (AVG 2.6 Szns & 23.6 yrs old)

• 82.85% of Top-12 RBs break out during their first 3 years

• Second-Highest percentage of 1-Hit Wonders (40.63%)

RB Breakout Candidates

1st Year

Ashton Jeanty - As the 1.01 pick of Fantasy Drafts, history suggests Jeanty is destined to be a Top-12 RB. At an 80% hit-rate since 2018, the only 1.01 RB to fail this threshold was Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Fantasy football and prospect evaluation have come a long way since then. Outside of perhaps Saquon Barkley, Jeanty is the best RB prospect we have seen enter the NFL in a long time. The Las Vegas odds-makers are not bullish on their hometown team making waves as an offense (Raiders projected as the 27th scoring offense). However, with massive upgrades at quarterback, coaching, and a rushing attack leaning entirely on Ashton, the Raiders should outperform expectations. 

Kaleb Johnson - With only Ashton Jeanty projected to have more rushing yards for a rookie, Vegas odds-makers are very high on Kaleb Johnson. Despite landing on a rag-tag Pittsburgh team projected 26th in scoring this upcoming season, Kaleb’s unique blend of power and burst should lead to the majority of carries and goal-line opportunities in this backfield. Do not be surprised if Kaleb outperforms most of the players going ahead of him in rookie drafts.

Situation To Monitor - Omarion Hampton - With the status of Najee Harris being up in the air following his 4th of July fireworks accident, Omarion Hampton may have to shoulder the entire workload of carries for the Chargers this upcoming season. With a larger opportunity than previously expected, Hampton’s production could be massive in 2025, given his talent as the potential workhorse RB on a run-heavy offense.  

2nd Year

Bucky Irving - Barely missing the Top-12 last year, Bucky is an easy player to project for a breakout season. Standing in his way of an elite year is an offense projected to take a step back from losing Liam Coen as the OC (but still projected 10th in scoring), sharing a backfield with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, and the unfortunate fallout from their star Tackle missing games with a knee injury. Despite these hurdles, Bucky has the best chance among all sophomore RBs to break out in 2025.

WR

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• Latest Breakouts Amongst All Positions (AVG 3.24 Szns & 24.36 yrs old)

• 33.33% of Top-12 WRs breakout during their 3rd-Szn (Highest 3rd-Yr % amongst all positions)

• 5th Yr or later Breakout of 26.19% is the highest amongst all positions

• 57.14% of Breakout WRs being 1-Hit Wonders is highest amongst all positions

• Main Takeaway: It takes years for WRs to develop, the barrier for entry into the Top-12 is tough, and the position is highly volatile with no guarantee a WR can remain amongst the elites 

WR Breakout Candidates

In the interest of my sanity (this article has taken FAR TOO LONG to finish) and strong urge to move on to other research, I will simply list the names of potential WR and TE breakouts for 2025. In terms of their cases for a breakout season, you’ll have to use your imagination, or you can ask me the next time I go live on the South Harmon Vibes channel.

1st Year

Tetairoa McMillan

Travis Hunter

Darkhorse - Emeka Egbuka

2nd Year

Ladd McConkey

Rome Odunze

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Darkhorse - Ricky Pearsall

3rd Year

Rashee Rice

4th Year - Longshots

Chris Olave

George Pickens

8th Year - Longshot

Courtland Sutton

TE

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• 90.9% of Top-12 TEs broke out their first 4 szns (Highest % amongst all positions)

• Only 9.09% of TEs broke out after Year-4 (lowest % amongst all positions)

• 30.3% of the sample are 1-Hit Wonders (lowest % amongst all positions)

TE Breakout Candidates

1st Year

Colston Loveland

Tyler Warren

Darkhorse - Mason Taylor

Darkhorse - Terrance Ferguson

3rd Year

Brenton Strange

4th Year - Longshots

Isaiah Likely

Chigoziem Okonkwo

The Dossier

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Positional Volatility

Expect the Unexpected

Everything is Ruined

From the moment the Chiefs were crowned Super Bowl LVII champions, 206 days, 22 hours, and 6 tortuous minutes will have passed that have deprived us of meaningful football. But there are no off-seasons for degenerate fantasy players. The blue-light glasses may have spared your eyes from the hours of late-night film studies and data entry, but your ears will never recover from the shameful amount of podcasts and YouTube you fed your big brain. There is no bridge too far, nor is there any sacrifice too big if it means our hard work will help us grasp glory this upcoming season. With only three days left until kick off of the new league year, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and we can finally rest easy…or so we thought. It turns out the soothing light at the end of your tunnel was just a freight train comin' your way. 

Analytics and projections are pivotal, but having backup plans and contingencies can be equally paramount. What will you do if your starting QB gets hurt? What will happen to your playoff hopes if your stud RB holds out? Will you be able to overcome the devastation you wrought by drafting a rookie TE in the 9th round? The first step in being prepared for these scenarios is to ground both our research and strategy in historical data. The past cannot predict the future any more than data or statistics can. But what history can do is train us for the unforeseen. History is not kind to those who are oblivious to it. 

This article is largely inspired by Peter Howard (@pahowdy) 's video on June 3rd, 2023 entitled “Bet on the Olds?” In the video, Peter breaks down the process he uses to help inform his projections for the upcoming season. He uses three major categories to help analyze the year-by-year trends he finds for each position. The first category is classified as a ‘Repeat’ player, which is defined as a “player who was in the ‘top X’ group last season and the season before.” The second category is labeled a ‘Return’ player, which is specified as a “player that was in the ‘top X’ group last season and not the season before, but rather another season earlier in their career.” The last category is the ‘Breakout’ player, which is any “player that was in the ‘top X’ group for the first time last season.” Peter defines the “top X” group as the top 12, 24, and 36 for each position. The final element to note is that Peter’s results were based on data from 2022 to 2008. It would be beneficial to check out his results in the video linked at the end of this article. I strongly encourage subscribing to Peter’s content as well; he is one of the top analysts in the entire space. 

Peter’s video piqued my curiosity given how large of a sample he used for his data. I was interested in knowing how the league has changed over the last six seasons compared to the NFL landscape over the past 15 seasons. This idea was motivated by the notion that the game has been defined by high-level passing over the past five years by an elite corp of QBs and WRs that are all very relevant in today’s fantasy landscape. I was equally intent on discovering the impact these positional trends had on RBs, as well as settling once and for all that the TE position has never mattered in fantasy football.

Using FantasyPros’ 2017-2022 season-long total fantasy points (weeks 1-17, PPR) for each position, I grouped each player using Peter’s ‘Repeat,’ ‘Return,’ and ‘Breakout’ categories of players as defined earlier. A key difference between my data and Peter’s is that he divided each position by the top 12, 24, and 36. I on the other hand divided the QB and RB positions by the top 12 & 24, the WR position by the top 12, 24, & 36, and the TE position by the top 6 & 12. My logic for these ‘top X’ groups was to better mirror the most common starting lineup in SF leagues. Furthermore, I was interested in knowing the percentage of rookies that composed the top Breakout players, so I created an additional group for this purpose.  Finally, I put in parenthesis the approximate number of players that qualified for that ‘top X’ for those who become cross-eyed using percentages. Here is what I found. 

I Did Not See That Coming!

Like a hardened detective who has seen enough crime scenes to know all too well how it will all turn out, I had my hunch that the percentage of Repeat Top 12 QBs would be high, but I did not foresee it being 15% higher than Peter’s results!

Here are a few key takeaways I gathered from the QB position:

• The highest Repeat amongst all positions is QB at 60% (roughly 7 players) of the top 12 and 69.17% of the top 24.

• If it wasn’t obvious already, Patrick Mahomes II is in a class of his own. Mahomes is the only QB in this sample to remain in the Top 12 every year since he became the Chief’s starting QB. Only his teammate, Kelce, can boast of a similar feat.

• Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen can be drafted with confidence - they have consistently been in the top 12 throughout most of their careers.

• Kirk Cousins is indeed the most underrated QB in the league - Top 12 in 4 out of 6 years, top 24 all 6 years.

• The majority of Return players were decent veteran backups with solid playing experience in very bad QB rooms (Ryan Fitzpatrick & Andy Dalton types).

• The theme for Breakout QBs was young players (usually in their rookie or 2nd year) who were well-known for their accuracy or elite rushing ability. 

When looking at RB, I was pleased to find that the position was comprised of a healthy mixture of stalwart vets and breakout talent.

Here are a few of the conclusions I took away from the RB position:

• A little less than half of the RBs in the top 12 and a little more than half in the top 24 are Repeat players - we have enjoyed a high level of certainty in knowing who the top RBs are over the last 4 seasons.

• The majority of Return players were arguably top 3 RBs at a given point who unfortunately got hurt & battled back to elite status. Never count out a RB. 

• In terms of Breakout RBs, these players typically received the vast majority of touches or saw very high usage in the passing game/goal line. 

• Rookie RBs boast the highest percentage of Breakouts amongst all positions at 12.5%, with nearly all of them being the highest-drafted RBs in their class (James Robinson & Phillip Lindsay are the only outliers in this sample).

The WRs were perhaps the most surprising of all the different positions in terms of the level of carry-over from year to year. 

The following is what I took away from the WR position:

• Of all the skill positions, WR is the most consistent with a 63.32% average of top 36 Repeat players over the last 6 seasons.

• Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Repeat WRs is how consistently we see the elite vets in the top 36 - The seasoned WR may very well be the most dismissed position in all of fantasy with how obsessed the community is with acquiring youthful talent.

• Outside of injury, it is difficult to discern many other factors that play into a WR Returning to the top 36. 

• Similar to QB, the majority of Breakout WRs were in their 1st or 2nd season.

• WR was close behind RB in the percentage of Breakout Rookies at 9.44% average amongst the top 36. 

Investigating the TE scene is the part of the job that no one tells you about when you first start off as a wide-eyed analyst - luckily your partner Johnnie Walker always has your back.

Here are some of the painful lessons that the TE position has taught us:

• Do not be fooled by these high percentages of Repeat players in the TE position - it’s Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and that’s pretty much it.

• There’s no rhyme or reason in terms of the Return TEs - some of them return from injury but many of them just end up on a milk carton for a few seasons & then are rediscovered in a faraway city years later. 

• There’s even less reason for discovering the links amongst breakout TEs -  a few of them are 2nd or 3rd-year players, and some of them are much longer in the tooth before they ever get to experience the limelight. 

• The absolute worst bet you can make in all of fantasy is on a rookie TE. You have a 1.67% chance of a rookie TE being top 12, which has only happened once since 2017 & that was with Pitts.

• Just save yourself the hassle & fade the position after Kelce & Andrews.

The ‘Not For Long’ League

The fantasy streets are littered with broken projections and shattered championship dreams. You can’t always plan or defend against it. Exercising caution, recalling what experience has taught you, and having some sort of way out is your best bet. It was my intention to unveil my rankings with these categories built into them, but three weeks on dogwatch has me forgetting what my wife’s face looks like, so we’ll save that for a future article. Catch ya later on down the trail.

Howard, Peter. “Bet on the Olds?” Jun 3, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqubB_P4GnA&t=3s

This article has been perfected by Dr. B Harris