NFL Breakout Data

Breakout Candidates For 2025

Image created by T-Rock

Dynasty Players are an inpatient bunch. Drugged up on an intense regimen of YouTube, Spotify, and Twitter content, fantasy managers fidget compulsively and go crazy with pursuing roster perfection. “Should I buy?! How long should I hold?!? What will happen if I sell too early?!?!?” So much of our investment in a player is wrapped up in one singular hope - A Potential Breakout. Like teenagers waiting to hit puberty, dynasty managers agonize over WHEN and IF their players will achieve the sought-after “Elite Social Status.” To set your minds more at ease, the research in this article is dedicated to answering one major question: “When Does Each Position Breakout In The NFL?”

Setup

The sample of this data includes every Top-12 finisher in PPR formats for each position from 2019 to 2024. In each dataset, you will find the Player, their Breakout Age, their Breakout Year, how many Seasons into their NFL journey until they had a Breakout Season (from the time they were drafted/undrafted), and how many Total Top-12 Seasons they have had during their career. An asterisk next to a QB’s Breakout Season signifies that the quarterback did not start a full season in their rookie year, either due to being their team’s backup quarterback or missing multiple games with an injury. For every skill position, an asterisk denotes the player missed more than one game with an injury during their first season. In addition to each of these metrics, I account for Outlier Players at each position, the Percentages for each level of Breakout Experience, and also the Percentage of Players who have had only one Top-12 Season. The data for this research was sourced from Sleeper, FantasyPros, PlayerProfiler, and Pro Football Reference.

QB

Image Created by T-Rock

• Second Earliest Breakout (BO) Season behind RBs

• Highest percentage amongst all positions of BOs in the 2nd season (43.75%)

• 71.88% of all QBs in the sample broke out in their rookie or sophomore season

• QBs that broke out in Year-3 or later were typically associated with players who endured early career injuries or were stuck behind an established starter

QB Breakout Candidates

1st Year

Cam Ward - The 1.01 pick and projected Day-1 starter for the Tennessee Titans, Cam Ward stands out as a top 5-8 QB prospect over the last five draft classes. Boasting elite-level college production (record for NCAA passing TDs - 156) and experience (57 starts across three schools), Ward enters the NFL with high-end arm talent, routinely making accurate throws from unconventional angles, and above-average mobility. Despite having a lackluster cast of weapons at his disposal, the Titans' upgrades on the offensive line and QB-friendly coaching from Callahan may be enough to elevate Cam Ward into Top-12 status his first year.

2nd Year 

Caleb Williams & J.J. McCarthy - Who is better set up for success in 2025 than Caleb or McCarthy? Both QBs are entering their sophomore seasons with two of the best offensive-minded coaches in the NFL. Ben Johnson has made it clear that the #1 reason he came to Chicago was to coach Caleb Williams. Kevin O’Connell passed on a veteran QB in Sam Darnold, who took the Vikings to the playoffs after a 14-win season, in favor of the rookie McCarthy. The Bears and Vikings are loaded with talented playmakers on offense. Which QB will reign as King of the NFC North is difficult to discern, but both have a great opportunity to break out in 2025.

Darkhorse - Michael Penix - The Falcons' second-year QB may not have the same ensemble of coaches and playmakers as his classmates in the North, but Bijan, London, and Mooney are still one hell of a trio on offense. If Kyle Pitts gets his shit together, then Atlanta can quickly become a force to be reckoned with.

RB

Image Created by T-Rock

• Earliest Breakouts Amongst All Positions (AVG 2.6 Szns & 23.6 yrs old)

• 82.85% of Top-12 RBs break out during their first 3 years

• Second-Highest percentage of 1-Hit Wonders (40.63%)

RB Breakout Candidates

1st Year

Ashton Jeanty - As the 1.01 pick of Fantasy Drafts, history suggests Jeanty is destined to be a Top-12 RB. At an 80% hit-rate since 2018, the only 1.01 RB to fail this threshold was Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Fantasy football and prospect evaluation have come a long way since then. Outside of perhaps Saquon Barkley, Jeanty is the best RB prospect we have seen enter the NFL in a long time. The Las Vegas odds-makers are not bullish on their hometown team making waves as an offense (Raiders projected as the 27th scoring offense). However, with massive upgrades at quarterback, coaching, and a rushing attack leaning entirely on Ashton, the Raiders should outperform expectations. 

Kaleb Johnson - With only Ashton Jeanty projected to have more rushing yards for a rookie, Vegas odds-makers are very high on Kaleb Johnson. Despite landing on a rag-tag Pittsburgh team projected 26th in scoring this upcoming season, Kaleb’s unique blend of power and burst should lead to the majority of carries and goal-line opportunities in this backfield. Do not be surprised if Kaleb outperforms most of the players going ahead of him in rookie drafts.

Situation To Monitor - Omarion Hampton - With the status of Najee Harris being up in the air following his 4th of July fireworks accident, Omarion Hampton may have to shoulder the entire workload of carries for the Chargers this upcoming season. With a larger opportunity than previously expected, Hampton’s production could be massive in 2025, given his talent as the potential workhorse RB on a run-heavy offense.  

2nd Year

Bucky Irving - Barely missing the Top-12 last year, Bucky is an easy player to project for a breakout season. Standing in his way of an elite year is an offense projected to take a step back from losing Liam Coen as the OC (but still projected 10th in scoring), sharing a backfield with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, and the unfortunate fallout from their star Tackle missing games with a knee injury. Despite these hurdles, Bucky has the best chance among all sophomore RBs to break out in 2025.

WR

Image Created by T-Rock

• Latest Breakouts Amongst All Positions (AVG 3.24 Szns & 24.36 yrs old)

• 33.33% of Top-12 WRs breakout during their 3rd-Szn (Highest 3rd-Yr % amongst all positions)

• 5th Yr or later Breakout of 26.19% is the highest amongst all positions

• 57.14% of Breakout WRs being 1-Hit Wonders is highest amongst all positions

• Main Takeaway: It takes years for WRs to develop, the barrier for entry into the Top-12 is tough, and the position is highly volatile with no guarantee a WR can remain amongst the elites 

WR Breakout Candidates

In the interest of my sanity (this article has taken FAR TOO LONG to finish) and strong urge to move on to other research, I will simply list the names of potential WR and TE breakouts for 2025. In terms of their cases for a breakout season, you’ll have to use your imagination, or you can ask me the next time I go live on the South Harmon Vibes channel.

1st Year

Tetairoa McMillan

Travis Hunter

Darkhorse - Emeka Egbuka

2nd Year

Ladd McConkey

Rome Odunze

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Darkhorse - Ricky Pearsall

3rd Year

Rashee Rice

4th Year - Longshots

Chris Olave

George Pickens

8th Year - Longshot

Courtland Sutton

TE

Image Created by T-Rock

• 90.9% of Top-12 TEs broke out their first 4 szns (Highest % amongst all positions)

• Only 9.09% of TEs broke out after Year-4 (lowest % amongst all positions)

• 30.3% of the sample are 1-Hit Wonders (lowest % amongst all positions)

TE Breakout Candidates

1st Year

Colston Loveland

Tyler Warren

Darkhorse - Mason Taylor

Darkhorse - Terrance Ferguson

3rd Year

Brenton Strange

4th Year - Longshots

Isaiah Likely

Chigoziem Okonkwo

The Dossier

Image Created by DK