Underdog Tips

The Underdog Series2025 Guide
Written By T-Rock

Guide To 2025

 

Greatness is a lot of small things done well. Day after day, workout after workout, obedience after obedience.

Ray Lewis

 

Feeling like I’ve woken up from a nap that lasted far too long, this article is being written the same way I’ve enjoyed most things in my life - quick and messy. Hopefully, next year I can get back to writing the same epics for Underdog as I have in previous years. Much of my approach has remained the same from previous years, which you can review here:  https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/category/The+Underdog+Series


Below, I have listed all the major updates I made for the 2025 Underdog campaign. 



Hits & Misses

The foundation of my process is laboring through every Hit and Miss from my 2024 Rankings and writing out exactly what went right or wrong for each player. What constitutes a Hit or Miss, I discuss in last year’s series (see the above link). Using ChatGPT, I summarize the most common themes for each position. Once finished, I begin applying projections to players in 2025 that fit the descriptions of Hits and Misses from the previous two years. As a cornerstone for my rankings, I utilize the latest ADP of Underdog and update it manually as the off-season progresses. Listed below are the Top 2 Hits and Misses for each position:


QB

Hits

  • Strong Offense / Great Supporting Cast - Top offense, Offense was great under new HC/OC, Amazing coaching / OC, Some of the best players at every position, Flourished with amazing coach and arsenal, Amazing arsenal of weapons, Fantastic line

    • 2025 Candidates - McCarthy, Lawrence, Caleb, Goff, Prescott, Penix, Baker, Stafford

  • Rushing Ability or Floor - Tons of goal-line touches and rushing, Rushing upside, High floor with rushing

    • 2025 Candidates - Allen, Lamar, Jayden, Hurts, Nix, Kyler, Fields, Caleb, Maye, Dart, Milroe, ARich 

Misses

  • Decline or Shift in Offensive Philosophy - Offense transitioned to defense/run focus

    • 2025 Candidates - Mayfield, Nix, McCarthy, Herbert, Darnold

  • Lack of Supporting Cast - Weapons got hurt or fell off, didn’t have good enough receivers

    • 2025 Candidates - Maye, Ward, Darnold


RB

Hits

  • Dual-Threat / Versatility

    • 2025 Candidates - Bijan, Barkley, Gibbs, CMC, Jeanty, Achane, Irving, Jacobs, C. Brown, Breece, Kyren, Omarion, Cook, Walker, Chuba, Kamara, Harvey, Dobbins, Henderson, Swift, A. Jones, ETN, Tracy, Skattebo, Charbs, Javonte, Davis, Sampson, Tuten, Blue, Warren

  • No Competition / Clear Lead Back 

    • 2025 Candidates - Barkley, CMC, Jeanty, Achane, Henry, JT, C. Brown, Kyren, Jacobs, Omarion, Chuba, Kamara, Kaleb, Swift, Conner, Chubb

Misses

  • Lack of Talent or Declining Skill - overhyped, one-hit wonder, fumbled away chances, aging

    • 2025 Candidates - Swift, Pacheco, A. Jones, B. Rob, ETN, Dobbins, Javonte, Rhamondre, White, Ekeler

  • Poor Offensive Environment - Bad coaching, bad offensive line, bad QB play, not enough opportunities on a dysfunctional offense

    • 2025 Candidates - JT, Breece, Allen, Walker, Charbs, Kaleb, Warren, Sampson, Quinshon


WR

Hits

  • Top Offense / High Volume Passing - offense was way better than expected, often paired with breakout seasons, consistent volume, or red-zone opportunities

    • 2025 Candidates - Chase, Tee, Iosivas, Jefferson, Addison, Nailor, BTJ, Hunter, Dyami, Rome, Moore, Burden, ARSB, Jamo, Tesla, Lamb, Pickens, Tolbert, London, Mooney, Ray-Ray, Evans, Godwin, Emeka, McMillan, Puka, Adams, Tutu, Whittington, Nico, Higgins, Kirk, Noel, Hill, Waddle

  • Became the #1 or Only Weapon - offense revolved around him, most trusted, poor surrounding talent, injuries to teammates

    • 2025 Candidates - Nabers, Ladd, London, JSN, Garrett, McLaurin, DK, Sutton, Ridley, Diggs, Shakir

Misses

  • Bad Quarterback Play / QB Injuries - worst QB play in the league

    • 2025 Candidates - Hill, Waddle, Puka, Adams (projecting missed games for Tua & Stafford), Garrett, Tet, Thielen, Legette, Coker, Olave, Shaheed, Downs, Pittman, Alec, Adonai, Jeudy, Tillman

  • Decline in Talent or Physical Ability (Often from Age or Injury) - not a good separator, cliffed talent-wise, constantly hurt, couldn’t beat out vets

    • 2025 Candidates - Ridley, Godwin, Diggs, Kupp, DK, Hill, Keenan, Hopkins, Lockett


TE

Hits

  • Injuries to Teammates Created Opportunity - Injuries to other skill players

    • 2025 Candidates - Kittle, Henry, Juwan, Otton

  • Became Focal Point or Main Weapon - most targeted weapon, most dangerous weapon, TD machine

    • 2025 Candidates - Bowers, McBride, Kittle, Njoku, Loveland, Warren

Misses

  • Lack of Role or Opportunity Due to Offensive Context - Took a backseat, became an afterthought, didn’t have a carved-out role, 4th best option, offense didn’t utilize the TE

    • 2025 Candidates - Kincaid, Goedert, Pitts, Strange, Gesicki, Otton, J. Ferguson, Sanders, Schultz, Theo

  • Not Talented Enough to Demand Targets

    • 2025 Candidates - Kelce, Kincaid, Goedert, J. Ferguson, Strange, Gesicki, Taylor, Chig, Sanders, Schultz, Juwan, Freiermuth


Needle Movers

With my rankings moving in a good direction, it’s all micro-adjustments from here on out using numerous “Needle Movers.” These are categories that, through previous research by myself and many others, have been shown to have a significant correlation to fantasy production and provide an “edge” to the final rankings. I have listed ALL of my Needle Mover categories down below:

  • Vegas Projected Team Wins

  • Vegas Projected Team Points Scored

  • Vegas Projected Player Yards/TDs

  • Offensive Line Changes

  • Projected Breakouts

  • Underdog Trends & Tips

  • Top WoRP Players

  • Spike Weeks

  • Reception Perception Man Grades

  • Players Who Disappointed Last Year BUT Still In Prime AND Not Coming Off Injury (Oddly specific, I know)

  • Create a 2nd Ranking that includes AVG Ranks from Favorite Analysts (Look for biggest differences & adjust accordingly)

  • Final Touch = Flag Plants



Roster Construction

Listed below is the Roster Construction I aim for in every draft, based largely upon Hayden Wink’s Research from previous Best Ball Mania Tournaments. You can review his latest update here: https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/what-has-worked-in-all-5-years-of-best-ball-mania

 

WRs 

  • Get 3x by Rd 6, 4-5x by Rd 10, 6-7x by Rd 18

  • Total: 7-8x WRs (7x if 6 RBs or 3 QBs)  

RBs 

  • Get 2x by Rd 6, 4x by Rd 10, 5-6x by Rd

  • Total: 5-6x RBs (5x RBs if get 3x QBs)

TEs 

  • Get 0-1x by Rd 9, 3x by Rd 18

  • Total: 3x TEs (2x top 12, top 23 OR top 8, 18, 23 OR after 11th)

QBs 

  • Get 1x by Rd 14, wait on 2nd until after Rd 8, 3rd after Rd 15

  • Total: 2-3x QBs (DON'T get 2x top 5: 2x top 8 OR top 11, 16, 25)



Strategy

With so many amazing players (especially in the first two rounds), I am entering the 2025 season with a heavy emphasis on having a diverse portfolio. To achieve this, I am employing a new strategy in which I: 

  • Move up player 1 Spot every 2 drafts I don't get a share of them

  • After Drafting Player, Drop them 1 Spot in Rds 1-9, 2 Spots in Rds 10-18

  • Draft only 2 shares of the Final selected QB, RB, WR, TE

  • Remove Players from Rankings after drafting 4-5 Shares of them


With 12 Best Ball Mania drafts on tap for 2025, and a Max 30-40% Exposure Rate for each player, the max number of shares I have allotted for my portfolio is four to five. This includes up to eight 3x-QB builds and up to four 2x-QB builds.



Best & Worst Playoff Projections

The final touch I use as a “tiebreaker” when on the clock and deciding between two players in the same tier is Playoff Projections for weeks 12-17 of the 2025 season. Using 2024’s Defensive Rushing and Passing EPA Per Play ranks, I assign a score to each player based on their defensive matchup.  I have sourced these Defensive EPA Ranks from the Summer Series that Brett Kollman and E.J. Snyder record every year on the Bootleg Football channel (it’s the best yearly series for all those who love football). Listed below are the Top-5 and Bottom-5 Playoff Projections by positional group:

Easiest

  • #1 - Seattle Seahawks Passers & Receivers

  • #2 - Atlanta Falcons Passers & Receivers

  • #3 (Tied) - New Orleans Passers & Receivers

  • #3 (Tied) - Tennessee Titans Passers & Receivers

  • #5 - New York Jets Running Backs


Toughest

  • #1 - Green Bay Packers Passers & Receivers

  • #2 - Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs

  • #3 - Dallas Cowboys Passers & Receivers

  • #4 - Los Angeles Chargers Passers & Receivers

  • #5 - Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs

 

The Dossier

 

Image Created by DK

T-Rock
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