WK 5 - Superpowers

Elite Fantasy Franchises Of 2024

Wanting people to listen, you can't just tap them on the shoulder anymore. You have to hit them with a sledgehammer, and then you'll notice you've got their strict attention.

John Doe - Se7en

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SITREP - Superpowers

Superpower franchises are the most influential teams in the NFL, with the best players for fantasy football. Their offensive ecosystems provide managers with high-end production at nearly every position. With elite offensive talent top to bottom, amazing coaching, and solid defenses, players on these rosters epitomize championship caliber.  

Saints - The Saints made this tier by the narrowest of margins. Alvin Kamara is rarely mentioned in the same breath as CMC, King Henry, and Saquon Barkley as one of the best RBs of his generation, but at age 29 the future Hall of Famer still plays like one of the best players in the NFL. Sadly, the Saints will continue to lose much of their early season momentum with Derek Carr being sidelined for multiple weeks with a torn oblique. This puts a massive damper on Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who was having a career year and on pace as a top 20 WR. Carr’s injury opens the door for rookie Spencer Rattler, who did not receive the best grade from us as a prospect but is interesting considering New Orleans’ playmakers and coaches. In a season of surprises, the once-projected 1.01 is worth an add as a bye-week QB. If Rattler can’t handle the offense, then Kamara and Taysom Hill will likely be run into the ground until Carr returns.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 84.2 (2nd), RunBlk = 65.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Derek Carr = 87.8 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.2 (9th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.5 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 77.7 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 65.8 (15th), RunD = 51.7 (27th), PassRsh = 69.1 (15th), Cov = 68.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TB, home vs DEN, at LAC, at CAR, home vs ATL, at CLE, home vs LAR, at NYG, home vs WAS  

Packers - The Packers are an odd team. They are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, but Josh Jacobs is shockingly the RB24 with only 1 TD. Their Neutral Pass Rate is interesting considering their talent at receiver, with Jayden Reed playing like a superstar and Tucker Kraft thriving as the Last of the TE Tribe. Green Bay seems reluctant to put too much on Jordan Love’s shoulders despite his embarrassment of riches at receiver. His performance so far this season looks nowhere near his level of play in 2023, and yet he is still averaging the 4th most fantasy points at QB. They're certainly not showing any signs of slowing, so it may be best to get on this wild boat ride where there's no earthly way of knowing which direction LaFleur has his team going.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.31 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 81.3 (1st), RunBlk = 56.7 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jordan Love = 61.9 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 57.4 (23rd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 67.3 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs ARI, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs DET, at CHI, home vs 49ers, home vs MIA, at DET, at SEA  

Eagles - Fully healthy, could the Eagles support a #1 at every position in fantasy? Yes, they could, which is what we fully expect once the team returns from their bye-week and hopefully welcomes back both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. This elite duo should settle the erratic play of Jalen Hurts, who should still be considered an elite fantasy QB with his rushing upside. With critical injuries to the offense and poor play from the defense, the Eagles are desperate to avoid repeating the disappointment of 2023. Helping Hurts shoulder the load is a fantasy godsend, Saquon Barkley, who is arguably the best RB in football right now. Invest in this offense now and cross your fingers that they can stay healthy enough for a massive offensive surge the rest of the way.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (14th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 72.6 (8th), RunBlk = 73.3 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jalen Hurts = 51.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (14th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 70.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.6 (23rd), RunD = 49 (28th), PassRsh = 77.2 (5th), Cov = 61.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at NYG, at CIN, home vs JAX, at DAL, home vs WAS, at LAR, at BAL, home vs CAR

Buccaneers - Few passing attacks have looked as great as Baker Mayfield with the Buccaneers this season. The offense looks better than last year, despite losing their talented OC Dave Canales, all thanks to Baker having the best season start of his career. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both look unstoppable as top 10 WRs. One of the most interesting players is rookie RB Bucky Irving. Bucky has outperformed Rachaad White, but it may not matter since the Bucs have one of the most dominant personnel groups in the NFL when both RBs are on the field together. Tampa Bay offers the best values in all of fantasy football.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.9 (10th), RunBlk = 64.5 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Baker Mayfield = 80.6 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.7 (21st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.4 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th-tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 28.5 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.5 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 66.8 (14th), RunD = 48.8 (29th), PassRsh = 69 (16th), Cov = 75.4 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NO, home vs BAL, home vs ATL, at KC, home vs SF, at NYG, at CAR, home vs LV, at LAC  

49ers - The 49ers have not had the best start to their 2024 season, but make no mistake that San Francisco is still one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. Purdy is not wowing managers who only look at the final stat lines. But anyone who watches the games has seen the signal caller routinely make impressive throws in a dynamic offense tailor-made to his skillset. Losing the offensive player of the year in CMC would crush most teams, but Jordan Mason has been nothing short of spectacular. The waiver-wire god is playing like a top-5 RB. The biggest area of needed improvement has been the defense closing out games and the redzone offense, which too often settles for FGs instead of TDs. Their game against Seattle will be a turning point in week 6. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.9 (13th), RunBlk = 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Brock Purdy = 84 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.7 (17th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.5 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 78.3 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.1 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.6 pts (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 73.6 (6th - tied), RunD = 55.3 (25th), PassRsh = 76.5 (6th), Cov = 79.8 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SEA, home vs kc, home vs dal, at TB, home vs SEA, at GB, at BUF, home vs CHI, home vs LAR    

Texans - Houston may not be winning as impressively as in 2023, but the team has shown true grit persevering through injuries to be at 4-1. C.J. Stroud is building off his historic rookie season and solidifying himself as an elite passer. The chemistry between Stroud and Nico Collins is otherworldly. Unfortunately, Collins is now on IR with a hamstring injury, which likely derails his prospect of joining the elite tier of WRs this year, but reopens his buy window. With Stefon Diggs playing at a high level, and Tank Dell looking to rekindle last year’s dominance, this offense is still dangerous. The Texans would greatly benefit from the return of Joe Mixon but given the ravages of time, he may not endure the 2024 season.   

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 79.1 (12th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - C.J. Stroud = 76.5 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 73.5 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.4 pts (19th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 79.1 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 36.1 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.9 (17th-tied), RunD = 60.1 (20th), PassRsh = 64.9 (22nd), Cov = 63.6 (18th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At NE, at GB, home vs IND, at NYJ, home vs DET, at DAL, home vs TEN, at JAX, home vs MIA

Seahawks - What started as great for Seattle has been tough sledding over the last two weeks with no sign of relief until their week 10 bye. Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have made the Seahawks exciting again for fantasy football. Geno Smith leads an impressive WR trio for an offense that leads the league in Neutral Pass Rate. According to PFF, their passing attack is complemented by one of the best backfields in the NFL, which ranks first in Run Rating. The Achilles heel of this team may be their offensive line, which allowed 7 sacks in their latest contest versus the Giants. This issue makes it tough to fully trust in any of the WRs besides DK Metcalf, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. In the year of our lord 2024, RBs are king, so put your faith in Walker and Charbonnet as they carry you to a championship.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.71 (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 52.8 (27th), RunBlk = 66.4 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Geno Smith = 73.8 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 91.7 (1st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.1 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.7 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 38 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.3 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 74.2 (5th), RunD = 68.5 (7th), PassRsh = 65.9 (19th), Cov = 75.5 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs SF, at ATL, home vs BUF, home vs LAR, at SF, home vs ARI, at NYJ, at ARI, home vs GB    

Lions - Tattered pleather booths, “Higher” by Creed playing on the jukebox, an order of 50¢ boneless wings with an ice cold Bud, and watching smash-mouth football. No, you haven’t died and gone to Heaven, but Dan Campbell’s Lions may be the closest thing we get to paradise in this life. Like many other Superpower franchises, Detroit asserts its dominance by pummeling defenses with its rushing attack. Montgomery and Gibbs have hit the ground running, while the passing attack deciphers how to recapture the spark from 2023. Jameson Williams’ breakout season has been the lone bright spot of the passing offense this year. His speed and big-play ability are exactly what the Lions need while Goff, Amon-Ra, and LaPorta figure out how to assert their prowess as one of the best trios in football.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 74.4 (6th), RunBlk = 75.4 (4th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jared Goff = 54.6 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.8 (5th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.4 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73.3 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.1 pts (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.1 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 76.6 (2nd), RunD = 68.2 (8th), PassRsh = 85 (2nd), Cov = 68.6 (11th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At DAL, at MIN, home vs TEN, at GB, at HOU, home vs JAX, at IND, home vs CHI, home vs GB    

Vikings - There is no one in the NFL who can stand against the Vikings! Led by a QB everyone believed to be dead, Kevin O’Connell has resurrected Sam Darnold’s career with a passing attack that pushes the ball deep down the throats of defenses. The only blunder more egregious than fading Justin Jefferson was drafting the Madden Cursed CMC. This is only further compounded by Aaron Jones’ excellent play, who at age 29 was the 10th-best RB before his injury. Behind Brian Flores’ exotic defense and O’Connell’s clear vision on offense, Minnesota could sustain their success on their narrow way to a Super Bowl.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th - tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.6 (15th), RunBlk = 78 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Sam Darnold = 65.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.1 (18th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73 (10th - tied), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.5 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 71.2 (11th), RunD = 79.1 (2nd), PassRsh = 56.4 (28th), Cov = 74.9 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DET, at LAR, home vs IND, at JAX, at TEN, at CHI, home vs ARI, home vs ATL, home vs CHI

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 5 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/news/nfl-week-5-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

WK 4 - Besieged Powers

Good Franchises That Could Be Great in 2024

The Force is with you, young Skywalker. But you are not a Jedi yet.
Darth Vader - Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back

Image created by T-Rock

Logjammin’ 

I know why you are here. You’re craving a compelling story with high production value. You also appreciate an emotional connection, delivered through clever literary structures and thought-provoking themes.

“Fuck that! How much should I bid on Kareem Hunt!?” shouts the crowd from the Mutantverse. “Why don’t the Colts make Joe Flacco the starter??? Have they seen ARich pass the ball?!”

Regrettably, the standards have fallen with the written medium while competing with YouTube. The market has clarified that anything more than “buy, sell, sit, start, and rankings” wastes the audience’s time. Advancements in analytics and tools equip fantasy players to compete unlike ever before. But does access to technology and content lead to more championships for managers? 

Yes and no. Having well-researched information from trusted sources can help players make better decisions. But we are an over-stimulated culture, over-burdened with anxiety, and incapable of patience. We can find this same experience in many other aspects of our culture. Take, for instance, the adult entertainment industry. 

Due in part to the ease of access and proliferation of explicit content, the average male lasts less than five minutes in bed and is often left with a profound sense of fatigue and a feeling of emptiness (not that I would know). Some subjects have described this sensation as “a loss of essence.” This phenomenon is strikingly similar to what Fantasy Psychologists have coined “Post-Trade Clarity.” Fantasy addicts, often referred to as “degenerates,” on average consume 2-4 hours of fantasy content per day, leading to idealized and usually unrealistic standards for their rosters. Now with a picture in mind of what a “successful” roster construction looks like, degenerates become obsessed with improving their team, frequently spending hours that stretch late into the early morning hunting for the perfect trade. Sadly, there are detrimental effects to this type of behavior, including but not limited to: 

• Pathological Trading: Managers who believe their own lies regarding player valuations in order to be more convincing salesmen in trade talks. 

• KTC Dissociation: The inability to separate KTC’s Trade Calculator values from reality. 

• Contending Impostorism: Belief that your team is championship caliber despite being outside the top three in scoring.

• Asset Hoarding Disorder: A strong emotional attachment to players that skews their market value, often leading to unrealistic prices and holding players far past their sell windows.

These conditions, shortness of QBs in superflex leagues, Post Injury Stress Disorder, and many other symptoms have become pervasive in fantasy football. As someone who has lived with these plights for nearly twenty years, I recognize that acknowledging the issues is the first step in treatment. I have a long road to recovery.

SITREP - Besieged Powers

The following teams are often good, and occasionally great. However, similar to me regarding math problems and women in school, these franchises need help. They haven’t cracked the code yet to operate as a cohesive ensemble, and instead revolve their offense around one or two players. Overall, they haven't reached their full potential and are lacking consistency. With that said, these offenses still showcase some of the best players in the entire league, and it will be only a matter of time for some of these teams to ramp up and join the Superpowers.

Chiefs - Beginning with the positives, Steve Spagnuolo doesn’t get nearly enough recognition as one of the best DCs in the NFL. His coaching, along with Andy Reid and Mahomes, is a major reason the Chiefs can even come close to creating a dyasty. Unfortunately, the same can not be said of Matt Nagy as the OC. Since replacing Eric Bieniemy, Mahomes’ fantasy production has dropped dramatically (8th in 2023, 16th in 2024). Mahomes was a top 4 fantasy QB in 4/5 years under Bieniemy. Funneling the entire offense through Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco was only great for Rice and Pacheco owners until they were lost to injury. Watching Mahomes, it is clear he is still the best QB in the NFL. Trading for the QB now in hopes of an OC change next season is a no-brainer move, but still remains difficult. Managers don’t want to trade for the depressed production, and owners don’t want to trade at any discount. It remains to be seen if Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt have aged like fine wine or will play like piss and vineagar.   

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.51 (11th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 67.5 (17th), RunBlk = 68.2 (10th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Patrick Mahomes = 70.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 77.5 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.6 pts (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.1 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.5 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 10 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 69.3 (14th), RunD = 67.2 (9th), PassRsh = 74.1 (7th), Cov = 62.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, at SF, at LV, home vs TB, home vs DEN, at BUF, at CAR, home vs LV, home vs LAC  

Cowboys - The Cowboys are a great example of how having the WORST defense in the league can cripple an offense. At 29th in time of possession, and one of the worst run games in the league, Dallas becomes pigeonholed on offense. With an offensive line that has taken a huge step back since last year, defenses can pin their ears back and dial up blitzes all game long. Dak has played well despite the team’s deficiencies, including as a top-10 passer when facing pressure and the blitz. The Cowboys are one of the few teams that took a glaring step back during the offseason and it's showing up now.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.55 (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 58.7 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Dak Prescott = 64.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 67.2 (25th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 66.6 (19th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.3 pts (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52 (32nd), RunD = 37.7 (32nd), PassRsh = 65 (21st), Cov = 59.2 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At PIT, home vs DET, at SF, at ATL, home vs PHI, home vs HOU, at WAS, home vs NYG, home vs CIN  

Bills - No QB is playing better than Josh Allen. With a rag-tag group of slot receivers and a defense that lost a lot of players to free agency, many predicted a rough 2024 for the Bills. A lot of props need to be given to the defensive coaches for developing their young talent, and a lot more kudos to Joe Brady’s work with the offense and James Cook. Not much should be made of the complete dismantling by Baltimore; the Ravens are going to expose a lot of teams with Derrick Henry.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.52 (9th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.6 (9th), RunBlk = 59.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Josh Allen = 72.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 86.3 (4th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.4 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 62.5 (22nd), RunD = 50.9 (28th), PassRsh = 75.5 (6th), Cov = 59 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At HOU, home vs SEA, home vs MIA, at IND, home vs KC, home vs SF, at LAR, at DET, home vs NE  

Cardinals - Similar to the Cowboys, the Cardinals are hampered by one of the worst defenses in the league. With the last two blowout losses, ¾ of the game recaps has been watching the defense get eviscerated by opposing offenses. However, unlike Dallas, Arizona has a competent run game with one of the must underrated RBs in football, James Conner. Led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, the Cardinals should have one of the best air raids in the league. But through scheme, QB chemistry, or poor coaching, the Cardinals haven’t been anywhere close to the air show we expected.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.45 (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.8 (13th), RunBlk = 68.1 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kyler Murray = 76.1 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 74.4 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.2 pts (21st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.9 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.7 (30th), RunD = 59.9 (18th), PassRsh = 54.4 (30th), Cov = 50.6 (28th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, at GB, home vs LAC, at MIA, home vs CHI, home vs NYJ, at SEA, at MIN, home vs SEA    

Rams - The Los Angeles Rams are the ultimate “what could have been” team of 2024. Not since the Red Wedding has there been a more heartbreaking loss to a team than what the Rams have suffered with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington have done their best to fill in, but are a far cry from the talents of their injured teammates. Compounding these backbreakers have been injuries and poor play from the offensive line, giving Stafford a nearly impossible hill to climb. Picking up from where he left off last season, Kyren Williams has been the lone bright spot so far this year. As a dual-threat RB, Kyren can be utilized on offense no matter the game script, making him one of the most valuable RBs in fantasy. With a talented Blake Corum still waiting in the wings for his shot, we fully expect to see the McVay-led Rams join the Superpowers once Puka and Kupp return. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.58 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 39.6 (32nd), RunBlk = 65.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Matthew Stafford = 59.8 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.6 (17th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 73.9 (7th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.1 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (26th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 58.6 (26th), RunD = 60.8 (16th), PassRsh = 68.9 (14th), Cov = 48.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs GB, home vs LV, home vs MIN, at SEA, home vs MIA, at NE, home vs PHI, at NO, home vs BUF

Ravens - Derrick Henry in purple and black is the most beautiful thing we’ve seen in Baltimore since the days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. At 30 years old, the immortal King could have the best season of his Hall of Fame career. The two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is playing lights out as one of the greatest QBs we have ever seen. So why isn’t this team ranked amongst the Superpowers? The passing attack for Baltimore has been nonexistent through the first quarter of the season, rendering Zay Flowers as an upside FLEX option. In strong contention for the most disappointing healthy player in 2024 is Mark Andrews. His 6/9 for 65 scoreless yards through four games is criminal. Isaiah Likely may be the Ravens TE of the future, but what does it matter?

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.35 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 78.1 (3rd), RunBlk = 76.3 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Lamar Jackson = 79 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 88.8 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.9 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.2 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 9.7 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.8 (6th-tied), RunD = 75.5 (3rd), PassRsh = 71.4 (10th), Cov = 67.2 (15th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CIN, home vs WAS, at TB, home vs CLE, at DEN, at CIN, home vs PIT, at LAC, home vs PHI

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 4 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-4-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by DK

WK 3 - Depressed States

Franchises That Can Make or Break 2024

Okay. All right, now, let's see. Where were we? Oh, yes. In the Pit of Despair.

Grandpa - The Princess Bride

Image created by T-Rock

Burned

“Hey! It’s my birthday, do you want to come over to my place and watch The Iron Claw?” you say to your co-worker, who is way out of your league. She smiles at you saying, “Oh my God, that would be great!” before quickly walking away. In preparation for your pity date, you wrestle yourself into your favorite pop-culture T-shirt from Khol’s, which now feels kid-sized. The scent of black cherry merlot wafts through your studio apartment, doing its best to drown out the aroma of cat litter and kill socks. You quickly look down at your vibrating phone, hoping it's her. It’s your mom asking you for the HBO MAX password so she can watch Furiosa. An hour and a half have passed before it finally sinks in that she isn’t coming. A knock at the door catapults you from your hookah-burned loveseat. It's the Uber Eats driver with your $28 Taco Bell order, now for one. You eat the whole thing. All in all, not such a bad birthday. That is until you open up your Sleeper app. 0-3, 0-3, 1-2 with the lowest points scored, 0-3. Most embarrassing of course being your winless work-league team, where half of the managers have never played before, and all of them know you are big into fantasy football. What once began as “My Year!” has quickly devolved into “my last year...”

SITREP - Depressed States

High hopes and significant capital were invested in the following teams for the 2024 fantasy season. Like the job prospects in a shit economy, you feel misled and disappointed, the same way most parents feel about their kids. Some of these franchises may turn it around, allowing their star players to flourish. But for the most part, these teams’ weaknesses will hold their players back from living up to their potential, similar to me with my Master’s degree. Caught in the awful dilemma of holding players that may never ascend or trading players before their resurgence, these teams epitomize the fantasy Catch-22.

Patriots - Some people are interested in knowing what life was like a hundred years ago and spend their weekends at museums. If you love boring, dusty football, look no further than the New England Patriots, who put the “Old” in Old School. Their game plan revolves around sound defense, running the ball with a bellcow RB, and keeping the ball safe on passing downs. They often don’t pass the ball further than 10 yards downfield given subpar line play. Rhamondre Stevenson will have decent games throughout the season, but negative game scripts and zero threat of explosive plays through the air will hamper the Rhino. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (28th in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 54 (28th), RunBlk = 56.2 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Jacoby Brissett = 62.2 (24th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.7 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.6 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.2 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 67.1 (13th), RunD = 58.5 (19th), PassRsh = 71.3 (7th), Cov = 65 (19th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - At SF, home vs MIA, home vs HOU, at JAX, home vs NYJ, at TEN, at CHI, home vs LAR, at MIA  

Bears - Caleb Willams has every tool to become a successful QB. Unfortunately, he plays for the Bears, who once again have proven why no offensive player can succeed in Chicago. The narrative that the offensive line has been revamped was a bald-faced lie. This gives the Bears no chance of having positive momentum through the air or on the ground. If this wasn’t enough, the Bears have the worst OC in the entire league. Hold onto Caleb and Rome Odunze, looking forward to next year.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (8th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 70.5 (11th), RunBlk = 59.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Caleb Williams = 48.6 (40th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 59.9 (30th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.9 pts (23rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 34.6 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11 pts (6th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 72.1 (7th), RunD = 61.7 (13th), PassRsh = 70.9 (8th), Cov = 74 (6th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs LAR, home vs CAR, home vs JAX, at WAS, at ARI, home vs NE, home vs GB, home vs MIN, at DET  

Raiders - A Jekyll and Hyde team, the Raiders operate purely on emotion, punching well above their weight class as underdogs, but also capable of collapse against lesser teams. Gardner Minshew exhausted all of his quality play last year in Indianapolis and has regressed to backup status in Las Vegas. With coach Pierce already considering Aidan O'Connell at QB, Bowers and Adams owners are in for a carousel ride from hell in 2024. Zamir White being unusable is the biggest nonsurprise of the season. The Silver and Black will leave fantasy managers black and blue by the end of the season.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.54 (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 71.5 (9th), RunBlk = 47 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Gardner Minshew = 70.8 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 40.2 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 27.9 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.6 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52.3 (30th), RunD = 71.9 (5th), PassRsh = 60.2 (24th), Cov = 34.5 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs CLE, at DEN, home vs PIT, at LAR, home vs KC, at CIN, at MIA, home vs DEN, at KC  

Chargers - The Chargers deserve to be in a higher tier. Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach who understands successful team building. He has raised both J.K. Dobbins and Quentin Johnston from the dead. The defense looks the best it has in years. But the Chargers, and some other teams in this tier, are far better in real life than in fantasy. With Justin Herbert’s health in constant flux for the rest of the year, the only reliable option in this offense is JK All Day. Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Dobbins will be a sneaky great trio in 2025.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 58.1 (25th), RunBlk = 65.9 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Justin Herbert = 53.2 (37th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 62.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.9 pts (28th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 63.9 pts (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.8 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 75.7 (5th), RunD = 63.6 (10th), PassRsh = 63.1 (21st), Cov = 85.7 (2nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs KC, at DEN, at ARI, home vs NO, at CLE, home vs TEN, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, at ATL  

Steelers - Like the team before them, the Steelers are fun to watch in RL but nerve-racking for fantasy. Justin Fields may be the ideal QB for this Authur Smith offense, but he limits the upside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. The Agency would much rather have Russell Wilson at QB for this reason, but that ship may have sailed for the team-voted captain if Fields keeps winning. Their elite defense will give their offense plenty of opportunities. But with the pass-catchers being a boom-bust option and Najee & Warren playing well below their capabilities, Pittsburgh will frustrate managers in 2024.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.4 (29th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68.2 (15th), RunBlk = 70 (11th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Justin Fields = 81 (5th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 58.9 (31st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.9 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 69.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 15.5 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 80.3 (2nd), RunD = 72.1 (4th), PassRsh = 88 (1st), Cov = 72.4 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At IND, home vs DAL, at LV, home vs NYJ, home vs NYG, at WAS, home vs BAL, at CLE, at CIN   

Colts - The Agency had high hopes for this Steichen-led offense with talented playmakers, an elite offensive line, and a duel-threat mutant at QB. Unfortunately, the ultimate fantasy QB looks like a Frankenstein monstrosity who escaped the lab before he could learn passing fundamentals. No overpriced beer is safe with how often Richardson’s passes sail over the receivers and into the stands. His inaccuracy will not be fixed during the season; these issues can only be fixed during the offseason. No receiver is startable with this offseason and Jonathan Taylor is a risky play with how bad the defense has frequently looked. 

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.48 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 85.8 (1st), RunBlk = 82.3 (1st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Anthony Richardson = 48.3 (41st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 79.4 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 16.2 pts (30th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 57 (31st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 21.3 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.5 pts (31st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 65.5 (16th), RunD = 64.7 (9th), PassRsh = 58.3 (26th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs PIT, at JAX, at TEN, home vs MIA, at HOU, at MIN, home vs BUF, at NYJ, home vs DET

Jets - With Breece Hall being the only viable fantasy option, the Jets are the definition of a depressed franchise. Hopes of Aaron Rodgers making the most of the opportunities afforded to him by his loaded defense appear misplaced. Allen Lazard, not Garret Wilson, appears to have the best connection with the QB. The Agency fully anticipates the Jets to improve on offense as the season progresses, but with the team being content to keep their signal-caller upright, we expect the offense to continue to run through Hall and Allen at RB and the breakout season for Wilson to remain elusive.    

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.5 (11th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 66.1 (18th), RunBlk = 66.7 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Aaron Rodgers = 82.8 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 81.7 (5th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.1 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 70.1 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (16th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7.4 pts (16th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 64.7 (19th), RunD = 45.6 (31st), PassRsh = 66.6 (16th), Cov = 79.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs DEN, at MIN, home vs BUF, at PIT, at NE, home vs HOU, at ARI, home vs IND, home vs SEA    

Dolphins - Miami finds themselves in football limbo with their QB Tua Tagovailoa lost in the maze once again. Having De’Von Achane average 20 touches per game has been great, but this is a short-term fantasy fling that isn’t built to last and could end in heartbreak at any moment. The best outcome for the team is Tua emerging from the labyrinth to play the rest of the season. For this reason, Tyreek Hill is a hold. But Tua remaining unscathed for the year behind an awful pass-blocking line isn’t realistic. The Dolphins should trade for Bryce Young, who could excel in this McDaniel offense.     

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.6 (22nd), RunBlk = 76.5 (3rd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Tua Tagovailoa = 59.9 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 70.2 (20th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 23.5 pts (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.7 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 25.4 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 11.7 pts (2nd-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 61.2 (24th), RunD = 69.6 (6th), PassRsh = 67.3 (15th), Cov = 48.5 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs TEN, at NE, at IND, home vs ARI, at BUF, at LAR, home vs LV, home vs NE, at GB  

Bengals - Our prediction for the Bengals to become the next high-flying offense was WAY OFF. Their run game is nonexistent, which is a moot point considering their sieve of a defense. Cincinnati has all the pass-catching power to keep them in a lot of games, but with their one-dimensional build, this team is going to be nowhere near what we had hoped for in 2024.  

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.59 (3rd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 68 (16th), RunBlk = 57.5 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Joe Burrow = 77.2 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 71.4 (19th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18 pts (21st-tied), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 62.9 (23rd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 30.7 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 13.7 pts (1st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 63.8 (21st), RunD = 62.6 (11th), PassRsh = 57.3 (28th), Cov = 66.5 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CAR, home vs BAL, at NYG, at CLE, home vs PHI, home vs LV, at BAL, at LAC, home vs PIT  

Falcons - Murdered out in their all-black unis, few teams are more intimidating than Atlanta lined up on offense. But despite their embarrassment of riches, the Falcons have played far below fantasy expectations. Every pass from Kirk Cousins looks like a hate-throw; as if he has already accepted that he will be benched by midseason for Michael Penix. Drake London was drafted as a top 12-15 WR, but he is playing more like a 25-30-ranked receiver. The greatest “what-if?” player of his generation remains Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson is playing more like the Suffering Servant with only 1 TD in three games than the RB Messiah we had all hoped for. Darnell Mooney is a sneaky cheap buy with his solid connection to Cousins. The Falcons could elevate themselves into the next tier, but as of now, they are one of fantasy’s most depressing teams.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.8 (26th), RunBlk = 71.5 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Kirk Cousins = 61.4 (25th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 75.8 (14th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.6 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 71.9 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.7 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 7 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 64.4 (20th), RunD = 62 (12th), PassRsh = 48.8 (32nd), Cov = 72.8 (8th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NO, home vs TB, at CAR, home vs SEA, at TB, home vs DAL, at NO, at DEN, home vs LAC  

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 3 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-3-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

WK 2 - Failed States

The Worst Franchises In 2024

You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan. No plan at all. You know why? Because life cannot be planned.

Ki-taek - Parasite

Briefing

Leagues across the globe are gripped with mayhem. Owners have input launch codes to nuke their rosters. Managers everywhere are doing their best Will Levis impersonation at their local Walmarts. The Field Surveillance Department can barely keep up with the flood of reports:

“CMC usurped, Jordan Mason, rising to legitimate power as RB1”

“Believed deceased, Sam Darnold and J.K. Dobbins leading separate revolutions in the North and West”

“The Miami Special Forces on the verge of disbanding after losing leader”

“The Shock Troop Saints have launched a surprise offensive from the South”

And we just received word, “Bryce Young, OUT. Andy Dalton, IN.”

Most concerning is the level of unrest amongst our Field Agents. Like throwing water onto a grease fire, some of their panic has resulted in ill-advised trades. Remember, Agency Protocol dictates:

Adhering to the Trade Schedule

• Weeks 1-2 - Be willing to trade a 3rd

• Weeks 3-4 - Be willing to trade 2x 3rds

• Weeks 5-8 - Be willing to trade a 2nd

• Weeks 9-12 - Be willing to trade 2x 2nds (or 1x early 2nd)

• Weeks 13-16 - Be willing to trade a 1st

Trading for a player worth a 2nd or more early in the season is a recipe for disaster. With limited resources, field agents cannot afford to take unnecessary risks due to the prevalence of injuries. The Agency broke the Preseason protocol of trading strictly for picks and instead traded for a player (De’Von Achane for Michael Pittman). This breach in security is luckily more embarrassing than damaging, but the Trade Series Field Manuals released earlier this year should have been consulted nonetheless. The best Operators will stay patient and make moves at the last possible moment

Anticipate Bounce Backs 

• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 11/19 for 119 yds (Wk 1 - 3/6 for 13 yds)

• Marvin Harrison Jr - 4/8 for 130 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 1/3 for 4 yds)

• Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)

• DK Metcalf - 10/14 for 129 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 3/4 for 29 yds)

• Zay Flowers - 7/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 6/10 for 37 yds)

• Davante Adams - 9/12 for 110 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 5/6 for 59 yds)

• JSN - 12/16 for 117 yds (Wk 1 - 2/2 for 19 yds)

• Derrick Henry - 18 for 84 yds, 1 TD (Wk 1 - 13 for 46 yds, 1 TD)

• Kyler Murray - 17/21 for 266 yds, 3 TDs (59 yds rushing) (Wk 1 - 162 passing yds, 1 TD (57 yds rushing))

• Joe Burrow - 23/36 for 258 yds, 2 TDs (Wk 1 - 164 passing yds (15 yds rushing))

• Trey McBride - 6/6 for 67 yds (Wk 1 - 5/9 for 30 yds)

An abundance of players cost managers week 1, but none of them cost a championship. More important than a player’s performance is an assessment of their team environment (neutral pass rate, QB play, OLine rating, defense, etc.). This is the purpose of the Team SITREPs preceding the player Bona Fides and Bulletins. Certain situations are more worrisome (Tua’s concussions) in terms of how they will affect other assets, making it all the more critical to consider various scenarios and possible outcomes. In these situations, The Agency advises: 

• Steadfast Patience - Agents plan, adapt, and regroup when a situation doesn’t go their way. Do not force the issue - better to look forward to the next opportunity than try to fix the current one. There will always be more opportunities. 

• Don’t Blow Your Cover - Stop seeking trades or putting players on the block in the wake of any negative news. If you have to convince your trade partner of something you wouldn’t do personally, you’re operating out of desperation. Your leaguemates will smell the blood in the water and they will come to dismantle your team of its best assets. 

SITREP - Failed States

In the most extreme and final phase of failure, the following organizations can no longer protect their players from the doom they face every Sunday, and they have lost all respect from their citizen fans. In the world of fantasy, players on these teams should be avoided like the plague, albeit a few elite players who can withstand the calamity of these franchises. 

Panthers - Much will be said of Bryce Young’s horrific QB play, but people who know football will discern he has been nothing more than a puppet leader of a horrifically run franchise. Their defense can't generate pressure, can't cover, & is devoid of talent. This side of the ball will be the Achilles heel of the team if they can't stop opposing teams & if the Panthers are down multiple scores early on. This forces the offense to be in catch-up mode early on.

Bryce looks shell-shocked trying to operate Canales’ offense. Completely unsettled, he tends to overthrow his receivers, often resulting in picks. I've never seen an offense with so many beta's; absolutely no explosive playmakers. There will be no chance of a run game if the team continues to be down by 3 TDs heading into halftime.

Instead of looking forward to the latter half of the season, the Panthers should be looking forward to next season.

**UPDATE** A new hero has risen to end the brutal tenure of Bryce Young. Despite Bryce being one of our top-rated QBs out of college, there is only so much torture a human can withstand, and the most merciful thing for Bryce is to be benched by Canales. Young still has a future somewhere else. As someone who lost their soul long ago in Cincinnati, Dalton can be thrown out to the wolves without sympathy or a second thought. The difference at QB will be night and day with the ghost mercenary who has nothing to lose. Is he good enough to elevate this team out of the Failed State tier? No, he's not God. Will he keep it close against a stretch of subpar teams and have some QB1 performances? Absolutely! Diontae, Chuba, and the rest of the Panthers' playmakers are no longer unstartable.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.44 (22nd in NFL), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.7 (5th), RunBlk = 62.5 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Bryce Young = 31.8 (38th, Dead Last), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 65 (24th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 12.2 pts (31st), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 53.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 24.3 pts (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 4.1 pts (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 47.6 (32nd), RunD = 51.3 (26th), PassRsh = 49.9 (32nd), Cov = 49.9 (28th), (Courtesy PFF) 

Upcoming Schedule - At LV, home vs CIN, at CHI, home vs ATL, at WAS, at DEN, home vs NO, home vs NYG, home vs KC  

Giants - The PFF grade doesn’t match what we saw from the Giants' offensive line. The line plays like they hate their QB, inviting every pass-rusher to a free lane to smash their signal caller. When he's not getting killed, Daniel Jones throws like he's cross-eyed, routinely missing WRs by wide margins. Malik Nabers is the lone bright spot of this team, but we fear that his talent isn't enough to overcome the ineptitude of this offense. The Giants' 4th-highest WR Fantasy Usage speaks to how exceptional Malik is as a talent. Brian Burns left a Hellhole in Carolina only to wind up in Purgatory in New York.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.42 (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 76.3 (5th), RunBlk = 49.6 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 61.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 69.5 (18th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 14.9 pts (29th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 62.3 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 35.4 pts (4th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6.3 pts (18th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 61.4 (19th), RunD = 52.1 (25th), PassRsh = 66.2 (14th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CLE, home vs DAL, at SEA, home vs CIN, home vs PHI, at PIT, home vs WAS, at CAR, home vs TB  

Commanders - Jayden Daniels’ is in a very tough spot: he has an awful offensive line and his receivers are usually covered. This leads to him tucking and running on most plays, which often results in big chunk plays for the talented rushing QB. The Commanders are completely devoted to their two-headed rushing attack with Brian Robinson and Daniels as the entirety of their offense. Their commitment to the run-game is impressive considering how many points they can be down thanks to their infamous defense. We would like to recommend the Medal of Honor for the bravery and valor Terry McLaurin has demonstrated for so many years in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.49 (13th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 63.5 (21st), RunBlk = 55.8 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Daniel Jones = 47.7 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 76.6 (8th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 22.6 pts (7th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 65.7 (16th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 18.9 pts (27th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 6 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 52.5 (31st), RunD = 65 (11th), PassRsh = 54.9 (29th), Cov = 44 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At CIN, at ARI, home vs CLE, at BAL, home vs CAR, home vs CHI, at NYG, home vs PIT, at PHI  

Broncos - Every drop back to pass looks like an impending car wreck with how often their receivers are blown up on slant routes. Unfortunately, it appears short passes and dump-offs are the only things Bo Nix can handle at this point. Anything further than 20 yards down the field would likely result in Bo Nix losing the interception battle to Hellmann’s Brains of the Turnover Titans. The Broncos line ranks dead last in run blocking, ruining any chance of a viable RB to operate outside of pass-catching opportunities. With Audric Estime on IR, there aren't any players on the Broncos that strike fear into opposing defenses.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.46 (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 62.1 (22nd), RunBlk = 42 (32nd), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Bo Nix = 41.6 (37th, last if you don’t count Bryce Young), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 56.3 (31st), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 17.3 pts (25th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 56 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 29.4 pts (10th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.2 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.4 (29th), RunD = 52.7 (23rd), PassRsh = 64.5 (18th), Cov = 55.3 (27th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At TB, at NYJ, home vs LV, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs CAR, at BAL, at KC, home vs ATL  

Jaguars - The Jaguars have the QB & head coach to compete for a playoff spot. The wide gap between their expectations and on-field product makes them the most disappointing team of this tier. The offensive line makes Trevor Lawrence worse than he is. Etienne’s performance is concerning compared to his #3 RB level of play in 2023. With Evan Engram out with a hamstring injury and Christian Kirk taking notes from ETN, the lone bright spot of this offense is Brian Thomas Jr. He is in a race to be one of the best rookies in 2024. The reign of Trevor Targaryen does not look promising in 2024.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.24 (32nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 59.4 (25th), RunBlk = 51.3 (29th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Trevor Lawrence = 69.4 (12th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 80.6 (4th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19.8 pts (15th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 63.1 (21st), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.2 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 8.3 pts (11th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 59.2 (21st), RunD = 54.3 (22nd), PassRsh = 66.1 (15th), Cov = 58.9 (22nd), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - At BUF, at HOU, home vs IND, at CHI, home vs NE, home vs GB, at PHI, home vs MIN, at DET   

Titans - Is the Titan's defense elite? Not according to PFF. It appears that this is a trick of the mind, mainly due to their herculean efforts to cover up the treachery perpetrated by their saboteur QB, who has achieved new heights of destruction never thought possible. Despite a subpar offensive line and an average cast of playmakers, Levis’s policy of turnovers is unconscionable and will not stand for much longer. Pick up Mason Rudolph now for free in Dynasty Best Ball leagues.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.47 (17th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 57.6 (26th), RunBlk = 64 (17th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Will Levis = 42.1 (36th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 74.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.6 pts (12th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 60.1 (26th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 20.8 pts (22nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.4 pts (24th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 54.1 (30th), RunD = 39.8 (31st), PassRsh = 60.2 (25th), Cov = 62.8 (20th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - home vs GB, at MIA, home vs IND, at BUF, at DET, home vs NE, at LAC, home vs MIN, at HOU  

Browns - With plenty of offensive talent and an elite defense, the Browns have the best overall roster in this tier. This team lives and dies (mainly dies) off of the erratic play of their QB, Deshaun Watson. Contributing to the lethargy of this offense is the lack of health of key linemen. Watson has used his legs to compensate and looked to newcomer Jerry Judy in critical situations, but this isn't enough. The Browns can beat most teams when playing at their best, but we have little confidence Watson will consistently put his best foot forward.

Neutral Pass Rate - 0.62 (2nd), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

OLine Rating - PassBlk = 56.3 (27th), RunBlk = 67.2 (13th), (Courtesy PFF)

QB Rating - Deshaun Watson = 68.6 (14th), (Courtesy PFF)

Run Rating - 61.5 (26th), (Courtesy PFF) 

RB Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 19 pts (19th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog) 

Receiving Rating - 55.2 (30th), (Courtesy PFF)

WR Fantasy Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 32.7 pts (5th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

TE Usage (Expected Fantasy Pts) - 5.8 pts (20th), (Courtesy of Hayden Winks, Underdog)

Defense - Overall = 73.4 (8th), RunD = 60.7 (13th), PassRsh = 77.7 (3rd), Cov = 73.7 (9th), (Courtesy PFF)

Upcoming Schedule - Home vs NYG, at LV, at WAS, at PHI, home vs CIN, home vs BAL, home vs LAC, at NO, home vs PIT

Works Cited

• PFF

• NFL Week 2 Recap - Fantasy Usage Model by Hayden Winks

https://underdognetwork.com/football/analysis/nfl-week-2-recap-fantasy-usage-model-2024

The Dossier

Image created by ATM

Week 15 Dossier

Fantasy Pruning - Preparing Your Off-Season Roster

Red Herring

There are various schools of thought on how to run a roster. Some have enough resources that can be deployed to overwhelm their competitors. Others rely on skillful manipulation to gain the upper hand. Regardless of how you achieve your goal, it cannot be argued that mission success can only be achieved through efficiently managing your assets. In our line of work, we carefully plan for the scenarios that may arise, but we do not waste valuable resources chasing the ‘what-ifs?’ Countless agents meet their doom because they were unable to make the cold and calculated decisions of what was best for the mission. They became too attached, always believing that every single asset was the key. In a game that relies upon quick reflexes, it is essential to understand the difference between an asset and a liability. The following principles can be applied in your startup drafts and throughout the regular season, but given the time of year, there will be an emphasis on how to best manage your rosters heading into the off-season. With this training, you won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Roster Construction - The Golden Rule of proper roster management is optimizing your Roster Construction. The general idea is that your league’s unique roster and scoring settings should inform which positions to prioritize and how many at each position to carry on your roster. Understanding your league settings, weighing the pros & risks of each position, and knowing the market are all considerations for optimized roster construction. But the following is a good place to begin:

The first step is to utilize Dr. Koopa’s WoRP Calculated Optimal Roster Construction tool through the WoRP Calculator. With the “Roster Efficiency” being set to “High,” click the “Adjusted Roster Construction” icon if your league is Lineup or the “True Roster Construction” icon if your league is Best Ball. Finally, engage WoRP by clicking “Calculate WoRP.”

The number of players at each position in the optimal roster construction should add up to the total number of starting and bench spots your roster allows. The “Droppable” position is what it describes: it’s the number of players whose WoRP production can typically be replaced through the waiver wire/free agency. But what do you do with recommendations that are in decimal points? 

If you simply round up any position that is above .5 or round down any position that is below .5, you will inevitably have too many or extra roster spots to play with. If you want to apply the same percentage of players for your droppable as you have at every position, then you can simply use the following formula:

The Optimal Position # divided by The Total # of Roster Spots = The Position % multiplied by The Optimal Droppable # = The Remaining Roster Slots for Each Position

4.08 / 35 = 0.12 x 5.33 = .64 QBs
7.17 / 35 = 0.20 x 5.33 = 1.07 RBs
6.17 / 35 = 0.18 x 5.33 = 0.96 TEs
12.25 / 35 = 0.35 x 5.33 = 1.87 WRs

The number of Droppable players is typically negligible, so the above formula is completely optional, especially if your roster is not competing. The most important aspect to consider when optimizing a roster is viewing the WoRP Roster Construction Tool as a guideline rather than a strict doctrine. The strength you have at each position and your league markets will have the biggest influence on your roster construction in addition to your league’s scoring settings. With this in mind, let us explore some various scenarios to fill in the gaps.

QB - Last year in 2022, a record 64 different starting QBs played in the regular season. As of December 11th, 2023, there have been 55 different starting QBs this season. What many perceive as a ‘Dark Time’ when it comes to the most important position for SF leagues, the Agency instead sees opportunity. 

Using the above Roster Construction as an example, it is advised to roster five QBs if one of the Droppable players is to be considered a QB. Either during your startup draft or at some point before the season begins, three of these five QBs should have job security and upside for the following reasons: 

• An early season injury will not completely derail your team if you have an extra QB that can be played.

• There is yearly volatility in production where only 60% of the top 12 QBs from the year prior repeat as a top 12 finisher the following year (only 69.17% repeat as top 24 QBs).

• Taking three starting QBs will force a league competitor to play with only two QBs.

Rostering three difference-making QBs in an SF league is the MINIMUM recommendation. In the world our agents operate in, the boundary on QBs has moved. 

Top-tier operators who win championships have as many as five to six starting QBs that they use to completely overwhelm their competition. To achieve this status, our agents must push the envelope in acquiring mid to lower-tier QBs during the season, especially after a season-ending injury occurs to a starting QB. Using WoRP to know which players to target and the principle of Pick Restraint (holding your 3rd-rd pick until 1/4 into the szn, 2nd-rd pick halfway into szn, 1st-rd pick 3/4 into szn), many league-winning QBs can be acquired under the 1st-rd pick price tag and for as little as a 3rd-rd pick. These players are cheap because they do not carry long-term dynasty stability, but “long-term” thinking is exploitable when championships are on the line. But what if you want to acquire these players for even cheaper?

Contrary to popular belief in not rostering ‘zeroes’ (backup players who are nearly guaranteed to score zero points due to the lack of playing time), there are certain backup QBs who are worth targeting. The following criteria will help you identify these potential difference-makers BEFORE they start and their prices shoot up:

• They must be a backup (do not waste valuable roster slots on 3rd-string QBs until injuries shake up the depth chart)

• They have prior starting experience in which they produced adequately as a starter (Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew, etc.)

• If none of these experienced veterans are available, turn your focus to backup QBs who:

  • Are on high-powered offenses, or

  • Excelled in the Pre-Season, or

  • Playing behind older/under-performing QBs who can be potentially benched
    

When 64 different QBs start during the season, it is no longer irresponsible to roster two to three of these types of players given the importance of the position, the attrition we have seen over the last two seasons, and their instant production/trade value should they see an opportunity. With all of these things in consideration, agents should head into the offseason prioritizing backup QBs who are under contract in 2024 to fill any open roster slots. If not for these reasons, one may take this approach to roster construction simply by default because of the volatility of the other positions, which we will explore now.

WR/RB - Heading into this season, it was the general operating procedure to prioritize WRs in best ball leagues. Their high upside and propensity for explosive plays being captured into your starting lineups is what makes the position so perfect for the best ball format.  However, after a certain range of WRs, their volatility makes them a liability in lineup leagues compared to RBs. In Lineup leagues, it is paramount to have clarity on the usage of your players. For this reason, it is often better to roster a backup RB over a team’s 2nd/3rd best WR in lineup because you’ll have no way of knowing when to start the WR (even an injury ahead of them in the depth chart doesn’t guarantee touches). A starting RB on the other hand has a far higher likelihood of guaranteed touches and scoring on goal-line opportunities compared to a WR. Whether it is an unfair opinion or not, the RB position has been devalued given their fragility and the lack of production drop-off between a starting RB and their backup. Given the probability that many starting RBs during the season may miss multiple games during the season, it is the Agency’s stance to roster talented backup RBs who can be confidently deployed should the starter miss time over a 2nd/3rd WR whose start in a lineup league is far more a shot in the dark.

Stick to the following parameters of roster construction when you’re close to starting the regular season or are in the middle of it:

• It should go without saying that only talented players should be rostered; a terrible backup will likely be leap-frogged by a more talented 3rd-string player or an incoming free agent

• Prioritize backup RBs that will get touches or offer a different skill set than the starter; surprising split shares can develop throughout a season

• WRs that see less than 20-30% of the snaps are likely cut candidates 

• Veteran RBs at the bottom of your league-mates roster are amongst the easiest assets to trade for and can often be ‘throw-ins’ on bigger deals. 

The balancing act of rostering a competitive squad with RBs & WRs and being liquid/flexible with picks completely changes heading into the offseason. If you are out of contention and you are still able to trade, there is one simple question to consider: “Would my league mates rather have my players or do they value their picks more? Will my competitors actively seek to acquire my players during draft season?” If your league values the pick more than the player, it may be a strong indicator to move the player off your roster via trade or cut. Any RB/WR outside the top six of dynasty rankings should be considered a candidate for trade heading into an off-season.

There are far too many unknowns heading into an offseason regarding most playmakers ranked outside the top 50 at their position and many inside the top 50 as well. For this reason, be willing to trade any of them for picks, including at a discounted price. This principle applies to contenders once the season has concluded. The time to reconsider these veteran players and depth pieces isn’t until late in the pre-season when the first depth charts are announced. Until then, prioritize picks and capitalize on rookie hype heading into and throughout the off-season. 

TE - We’ll make this short and sweet, but listen carefully because this may save your fantasy season one day: cut any TE that isn’t a starter or has a very high upside due to their draft capital/profile. They do not carry the WoRP firepower to command a place on your roster, they have the highest volatility of any position, and their price of acquisition is the least daunting. Use the leftover roster spots to carry extra QBs or anyone else who doesn’t play TE. 

Draft Picks - Hit rates and the true value of draft picks in terms of rookie selections will be covered in a future article. For the time being, the most crucial aspect for our agents to consider heading into the offseason is that draft picks are an invitation to the dance that only happens once a year. You don’t have to like dancing or rookies to appreciate that having tickets to this event gives managers the opportunity and flexibility to convert their draft currency into the resources they most desire for their squads. For this reason, it is pivotal to convert any speculative player into draft capital (which will only increase in value) and decide later during the draft season how to best utilize the asset. 

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering: 

Chargers vs. Raiders - The entire Raiders offense is being investigated for suspected war crimes after taking advantage of a Los Angeles Chargers team that conscientiously objected to playing defense this past week. Aidan O’Connell’s week 15 performance was night & day different from his NFL debut in week 4 versus the Chargers. Week 15 - 20/34 for 248 yards and 4 passing TDs / Week 4 - 24/39 for 238 yards, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers were among the many beneficiaries in this game who went on to combine for 3 total TDs. Despite having a tough matchup versus the Chiefs in week 16, look to Las Vegas to once again go all in on their pass-catchers should Josh Jacobs miss this pivotal divisional game.
Easton Stick’s 23/32 for 257 yards, 3 TDs, & 1 INT will likely not be remembered given how badly the Chargers defense performed in giving up 63 points. His performance was admirable considering he was playing without the Charger’s top receiver (Keenan Allen) and he received little help from their pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler, who only managed 38 total yards on 9 touches. Things will not get any easier for the Chargers as they take on the Bills in week 16.

Vikings vs. Bengals - Patiently bided his time in dormant, the sleeper cell Jake Browning has unleashed an unquenchable fury on the league since being activated. Over the last 3 weeks, Browning is 4th in fantasy PPG (23.8 pts/g), first in completion percentage (76.7% - minimum 11 passes), and first in passing yards (953 yds). We’ll see if he can keep up this amazing stretch versus Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
Nick Mullens isn’t the flashiest signal-caller in the league, but his 26/33 for 303 yards, 2 TDs, & 2 INTs was good enough for QB11 on the week. Justin Jefferson (7/10 for 84 yds), Jordan Addison (6/6 for 111 yds & 2 TDs), and T.J. Hockenson were all able to enjoy solid outings despite the change at quarterback. In addition to Addison, Ty Chandler also put together a highly productive day with 157 total yards and 1 TD versus the Bengals. Chandler may not be able to replicate this performance versus a stout Lions rush defense in week 16, but Chandler is still a worthwhile flex play if Alexander Mattison misses another week with his injury.

Broncos vs. Lions - Despite only having 25 red zone touches on the year (26th amongst RBs) and 3 goal-line opportunities, Jahmyr Gibbs has made the most of his split opportunities in arguably the 2nd best backfield tandem of 2023 (behind only Miami’s RB duo). It is remarkable how comparable Gibbs’ 2023 stats in the NFL are to his 2022 stats at Alabama: Fantasy PPG: ALB - 16.42, DET - 17.0 … Routes/G: ALB - 20.3, DET - 19.8 … YdsPerCarry: ALB - 5.7, DET - 5.7 … YdsAfterContactPerAttempt: ALB - 3.39, DET - 3.22 … Target Share: ALB - 14.7%, DET - 14.9%. Both Gibbs and Montgomery will look to keep the ground game rolling in their divisional matchup with Minnesota, whom they will play in 2 out of their next 3 games.
There isn’t much to report for the Broncos other than Courtland Sutton not scoring his customary TD. The coaching staff continues to treat Marvin Mims like the Roswell Landing and struggle to harness his alien talents. Denver will look to bounce back versus New England this week.   

Bears vs. Browns - Joe Flacco is playing like the best QB the Browns have had since the Cold War. This man is playing like there is no tomorrow with his 939 passing yards over the last three weeks (2nd in NFL) and 5 INTs (highest in NFL over the span). Facing a Stroud-less Texans team this week and a revenge game against the Jets the following week, look for Flacco to scorch the earth with David Njoku, Amari Cooper, and an elite defense who are all fighting for the honor and pride of their comrade, Nick Chubb.
The Bears did not play well against the Browns, with only 166 yards through the air. They will rectify their performance next week against an exploitable Cardinals team.

Buccaneers vs. Packers - Chris Godwin’s 155 receiving yards against the Packers was the most he’s had in a game since week 12 of 2019 and was the 3rd highest number of yards he ever recorded in his career. It was only the 3rd time in Baker Mayfield’s career to throw for 4 TDs, which he hadn’t done since week 13 of 2020. Mayfield is on pace to have the best year of his entire career. If he manages to lock up the AFC South, Baker could lock up an extension with the Buccaneers this offseason. Mike Evans continues to pile on the TDs with another score this past week. Evans is 2nd amongst WRs with 11 receiving TDs (only 1 behind Tyreek Hill) and could come close to having his best season since 2018.     
Despite playing efficiently in the first half, Jordan Love couldn’t keep up with Baker’s stellar performance but still managed 29/39 for 284 passing yards and 2 TDs against the Buccaneers. Dontayvion Wicks (6/7 for 97 yds), Jayden Reed (6/8 for 52 yds & 1 TD), and Tucker Kraft (4/6 for 57 yds & 1 TD) have each enjoyed spectacular rookie campaigns with their first-year quarterback. The Packers will hope to be one step closer to sneaking into the playoffs when they face off with the Panthers this week.

49ers vs. Cardinals - Since Week 10, Brock Purdy has led the league in completion % (71.9%), passing yards (1762 yds), Passing TDs (17), and is tied with Dak Prescott & Bryce Young for the least number of INTs during this span (2 INTs). What’s most impressive is that Purdy has accomplished all of this on only 160 attempts, which is the fewest of any quarterback who has played all six games since week 10. Purdy made easy work of the Cardinals, going 16/25 for 242 yards and 4 passing TDs.  At -200, Purdy is currently the favorite to win the NFL MVP but will have to face off against a Ravens defense that will likely prove to be his toughest matchup since week 6 versus the Browns.
Since Kyler Murray returned to the lineup in week 10, Trey McBride has been the #1 TE in the league with 17.3 PPG (PPR), comfortably ahead of Sam LaPorta (15.8 PPG) and T.J. Hockenson (15.7 PPG). McBride has also led all TEs in receiving with 425 yards over this timeframe as well. With plus matchups versus Chicago and Philadelphia to close out the fantasy season, McBride could prove to be one of the most dangerous assets on championship rosters. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Trey Sermon/Tyler Goodson - 14 & 2% rostership, spend up to 10% FAAB (Both RBs were efficient, but it remains to be seen if Moss or Taylor will return wk. 16)

• Elijah Higgins - 13% rostership, 5% FAAB (Could be in line for a big opportunity if Trey McBride misses wk. 16)

• Mason Rudolph - 2% rostership, 10% FAAB (Mason it typically hit or miss, but if you’re desperate then maybe Rudolph can perform a Christmas miracle and save your fantasy season)

Week 14 Dossier

League Bandits

Meanwhile, at the Legion of Doom

Footsteps from a pair of rattlesnake boots echo through the abandoned warehouse. They scrape across the concrete floor before they finally come to a rest in front of a row of shipping crates, each with a glass of aged tequila resting on top. Gathered around these crates are leaders of the Asset Trafficking Syndicate, commonly known as the Dynasty Lords. With outstretched arms, the man in the boots smiles and says, “Gentlemen, thank you for being here. We have a common goal. We have fought hard to be here, but each of us knows that everything we have earned can be taken away from us in the blink of an eye during the playoffs. What I propose is that at this moment we form an organization. Bringing our resources together to strengthen our position in the league, we will share knowledge and trade away the finest assets only amongst ourselves. Let us make it known to our league that we control the championship. Inside each of these crates are the highest-valued players and picks in the league. If you place your trust in me to manage the operations, I promise that each of you will have your moment of glory, and you have my word that I will destroy anyone that gets in our way.” Each of the Dynasty Lords looked at one another nodding before they reached for the glasses glistening in front of them. Raising their drinks in the air, they proclaimed in unison, “Al Patrón!” It was at this moment that the Dynasty Lords had now become the Contender Cartel.

Usage Activity

Please examine carefully the following usage activity reports we have gathered on players from week 14:

Patriots vs. Steelers - Ezekiel Elliot’s week 14 was his best performance since week 3 of the 2021 season. Elliot rushed for 68 yards on 22 carries and had 72 yards receiving plus 1 TD on a team-high 7 receptions & 8 targets. Playing 91% of the snaps, and having one of the easiest remaining strength of schedules with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Bills, Elliot’s usage on the ground and involvement through the air could carry contenders to a championship as long as Rhamondre Stevenson remains out with an injury.
In the year of our Lord 2023, nothing can be taken for granted with the quarterback position. Despite passing for only 190 yards, Mitch Trubisky’s 2 TD & 1 INT was still good enough for QB8 on the week. But despite the wicked witch of Pittsburgh Matt Canada being vanquished, it is difficult to trust anyone in this offense when only one Steelers receiver accounts for more than 30 yards.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons - Drake London’s 10/11 for 172 scoreless yards on 76% of the snaps was the best fantasy game of his young career and good enough for WR2 on the week. London remains one of the most intriguing buys heading into the offseason ahead of the Falcon’s offseason campaign for a new QB.  
Since week 9, the only RBs to average more fantasy points than Rachaad White (19.6 pts PPR)) is Kyren Williams (24.9 PPR) and Christians McCaffrey (22.2 PPR). During this time, White leads the league in rushing attempts (109), is 2nd in rushing yards (440 yds), is tied for 5th place with 4 rushing TDs, and is tied for 1st with 2 receiving TDs. Featured on last week’s agency bulletin, one can have confidence in White’s rest-of-season performance after his 25 carries for 102 yards on the ground and 33 yards plus a TD through the air week 14 stat-line.

Rams vs. Ravens - As the best QB this week, Lamar Jackson passed for 316 yards and 3 TDs & 1 INT with an additional 70 yards on the ground. The main beneficiaries of Jackon’s performance were Odell Beckham, Isaiah Likely, and Zay Flowers, who each enjoyed at least 60 yards receiving and 1 TD. Keaton Mitchell was once again ultra-efficient: 9 carries for 54 yards. But it was actually Justice Hill who led all Baltimore backs in snaps at 42%. Hopefully, the Baltimore Ravens firing on all offensive cylinders is only a taste of great things to come for a team that aims to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua continue to make their case as one of the most effective and underrated WR duos in 2023. Kupp enjoyed the 2nd best performance of his 2023 campaign with 8/10 for 115 yards and 1 TD, whereas Nacua turned in a solid 5/8 for 84 scoreless yards. Leading this unit is Matthew Stafford, who has quietly been the 7th best QB since week 9, averaging 20.5 fantasy points/game. But much of this offense owes its success to their RB, Kyren Williams, who is only behind Christian McCaffrey as the most valuable rusher this season. The Rams lead back ran for 114 yards on 25 carries on 90% of the snaps.

Lions vs. Bears - For weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs has received the bulk of snaps at the RB position. That trend continued in week 14, with Gibbs seeing 63% of the snaps and David Montgomery receiving only 35% of the snaps. This could be due to the Lions’ gamescript being down much of the game and favoring the pass-catching abilities of Gibbs over Montgomery. Both RBs finished the game with similar yardage statlines: Gibbs - 11 carries for 66 yards rushing & 1 TD, 3/4 for 16 yards receiving … Montgomery - 10 carries for 66 yards rushing, 3/3 for 19 yards receiving.
The Bears on the other hand have one of the most confusing backfields in the league. D’Onta Foreman led the Chicago backfield with 55% of the snaps, followed by Roschon Johnson’s 28% snap share, and Khalil Herbert's 17% of snaps. Foreman turned this opportunity into 50 rushing yards on 11 carries and 22 receiving yards on 2 catches. It only took 14 weeks, but the Bears may have finally solidified Foreman as their most trusted back. 

Jaguars vs. Browns - Since becoming the Browns’ signal-caller in week 13, Joe Flacco is 5th in passing yards with 565 yds, tied for 2nd with 5 passing TDs, and is 11th in fantasy points/game with 19.3 points. Players like Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Jerome Ford could all have some of their best 2023 performances yet to come with Chicago, Houston, and Jets still left on their calendar.
A top-10 TE option in all but 4 weeks this season, Evan Engram is on pace to smash last year’s season and have the best year of his entire career. Engram’s 11/12 for 95 receiving yards and 2 TDs was the 2nd best game of his career, only behind last year's week 14 performance versus the Titans. Engram must be considered a top 5 dynasty TE after back-to-back dominant seasons.

Seahawks vs. 49ers - Don’t look now, but Brock Purdy is 2nd only to Dak Prescott in the odds to win NFL MVP this year at +200. No other QBs have enjoyed the same level of consistent success the same way Purdy and Prescott have over the last six weeks of the season. Since week 9, Purdy has been 4th in points per game (22.8 pts), 4th in passing yards (1,520 yds), and 2nd in passing TDs (13). He added to his bid for MVP with a 19/27 for 368 passing yards, 2 TDs, & 1 INT performance against the Seahawks, which included 3 receivers over 75 yards receiving each (2 of which had over 125 yards receiving each). 
Despite receiving the ball from a different passer, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain one of the best WR duos heading into the fantasy playoffs. Lockett led all Seattle receivers with 89 yards on 6 catches, whereas Metcalf had a solid outing with 52 yards on 2 catches plus a TD. Zach Charbonnet appeared to be the furthest removed from injury and the most explosive Seattle back in this game. He had 44 yards rushing on 9 carries on 42% of the snaps, whereas Kenneth Walker III had 21 yards on 8 carries on 56% of the snaps. Perhaps another week will help Walker in his recovery from injury.

Broncos vs. Chargers - Javonte Williams did it: he scored a rushing TD (the 1st one in 2023). On 60% of the snaps, Williams ran the ball 17 times for 66 yards and had an additional 3 catches for 25 yards. Behind Williams in snaps was Samaje Perine (21%), who actually led the team in targets and catches (5/5), and Jaleel McLaughlin (19%). The TD streak continues for Courtland Sutton, who has scored in 10/13 games this season.
It does not look good for the Chargers offense with QB Justin Herbert now likely out for the remainder of the season. The only fantasy players that can survive such a shift are duel-threat RBs that can be utilized no matter the game script, such as Austin Ekeler, who had 51 yards on the ground plus a TD and 49 yards through the air on 72% of the snaps.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Nick Mullens - 9% rostership, spend up to 0% FAAB (Dobbs likely gets another start, but if he has another bad game then it may be Mullens ROS) 

• Easton Stick - 2% rostership, 0% FAAB (he’s a QB likely to start for ROS, pick him up in BB if you have the room, you never know)

• Davis Allen - 6% rostership, 0% FAAB (only Rams TE with a catch in wk. 14, viable start if Higbee misses another game)

Week 12 Dossier

Frenemies

Off The Record

It’s dark and you can barely make your way through the thick crowd at the Last Dance nightclub. The blasts of mariachi trumpets and electric guitars ring in your ears as you are being escorted past the stage. You reach a stairwell guarded by two more men who pat you down and grant you passage with a slight nod. You descend into an entirely new world, hidden away deep below. In it you see a long wooden bar with low-lit glass shelves and at the end of it a red leather booth with a man in a white suit.

“And who is this unexpected guest that has welcomed themself into my sanctuary? Have you decided to wake up and stop pretending to make a difference at the Agency?” the man in a white suit said. You reply, “I’m here to offer you a proposition - help you take down the competition.” The suited man bursts out into uncomfortable laughter “The last time I traded with you, I lost nearly everything! It took me over a year to recover my assets!!! But now I am the closest I have ever been to winning a championship!” he exclaimed. He tilted his head and slowly said, “But now you risk everything for us by being here. There will be consequences if the other contenders learn of our meeting.” You explain, “No one knows I am here, not even the Agency.” The man smiled and said “My father was an honest and hard-working man who started from nothing. He spent multiple years building up his assets. Then he put his trust in people like you and got in the way of the Asset Traffickers. The only thing left of him now is his orphan and the pain I inherited to piece it back together. I don’t need your help.” A few moments of silence go by before you say, “I knew your father. What happened to him wasn’t right. That’s why I am here. I want to take down the top guy and my reports are clear that you don’t have the firepower to do it by yourself. Your most valuable resources are bleeding on the IR now. How many more years are you going to come second place to them?” Slowly standing up and buttoning his jacket the man said, “Come with me.”

The man in the suit leads you through a narrow corridor before you finally reach a door. Outside, you are greeted with a mesmerizing view of a million lights flickering in the dark from the valley below. “What chance do you think you have?” the man says as he lights a fat cigar. “I can’t help you. If this Dynasty Lord wants to destroy you, they will. How can you escape the storm? No matter where you go, they can always reach you. So tell me, what do you really want?” You reply, “Information. I want to know who this contender has talked to.”  The man chuckles and says, “If you want to beat the best, it’s not enough to know what they have been doing. You need to know what their next move is.” You then ask, “And I assume you know?” Slowing puffing smoke from his cigar he smiled and said “Of course I do.”

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Packers vs. Lions - David Montgomery only received 27% of the snaps in this matchup, but still managed 15 carries for 71 yards and 1 TD. It was Jamyr Gibbs who received the lion’s share of the snaps with 71%, in which he had 11 carries for 54 yards rushing and 4/8 for 19 yards receiving.
Jordan Love has put together back-to-back top-10 QB performances, including 22/32 for 268 yards passing and 3 TDs (39 yards rushing) against Detroit. In most scoring formats, Love is the QB9 in fantasy, and has an appealing schedule with Kansas City being the most difficult matchup in week 13, followed by the Giants, the Buccaneers, the Panthers, and the Vikings.

Commanders vs. Cowboys - Dak Prescott has been arguably the best QB in the league over the second half of the season. Since week 6, Prescott has led the league with 18 passing TDs (5 more TDs than 2nd placed Allen & Herbert over that span), has the most passing yards per game with 312.3, and is 2nd behind Sam Howell with 1874 total passing yards. Only Josh Allen has more fantasy points at the position since week 6 (178.5 pts vs Prescott’s 169.6). During this part of the season, Prescott has been the QB1, QB3, QB2, QB1, QB17, and QB3. In a year that is filled with old WRs, expendable RBs, and detested QBs all producing at high levels, it would definitely be worth considering pursuing the dead-zone QB in Prescott ahead of his highly favorable rest-of-season fantasy schedule.
Sam Howell isn’t far behind Prescott though - he’s been the 4th best QB in fantasy since week 6 (Jalen Hurts is 3rd). Howell has an insane 295 pass attempts over this span (Allen 2nd w/ 258) for an NFL-high 1989 yards passing over the past 7 weeks. But with a bye in week 14, and tough matchups with the Jets and 49ers in weeks 16 & 17, it remains to be seen if Sam Howell can rise to the occasion to deliver fantasy glory for contenders.

Saints vs. Falcons - In this pivotal divisional matchup, each team’s best offensive players were heavily featured. For the Falcons, it was Bijan Robinson who led Atlanta to victory. Robinson’s 16 carries for 91 yards and 1 TD on the ground and 3/6 for 32 yards & 1 TD through the air (63% of the snaps) is the second promising performance in a row for the RB and should be encouraging for all fantasy owners.
For the Saints, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara did their best to deliver New Orleans a victory. Olave was well on his way to having his best performance of the season with his 7/9 for 114 receiving yards but was unfortunately knocked out of the game with a concussion in the third quarter. Kamara continued his epic RB campaign with 15 carries for 69 yards rushing and 4 catches on 5 targets for an additional 50 yards receiving. With Olave likely to miss next week versus the Lions, Kamara could have a monster game.

Jaguars vs. Texans  - Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley have seemingly sorted out their earlier season woes and have been the #2 fantasy producers at their respective positions the last two weeks in crucial divisional games. Our agents will keep a close eye on this Jacksonville team as they look to complete their AFC North tour with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore next on their schedule.
Nothing further to report on the Texans at this time.

Buccaneers vs. Colts - This is the time of the year when certain RBs operate like runaway freight trains, barreling through any defenses in their path. Jonathan Taylor is playing his best football of the year right now - 15 carries for 91 yards and 2 TDs on 58% of the snaps this week. It will be exciting to watch both Taylor and Derrick Henry steamroll defenders when the Colts visit the Titans in their week 13 division game.
Nothing to report on the Buccaneers at this time.

Rams vs. Cardinals - In his first game coming off IR, Kyren Williams picked up where he left off and erupted as the RB1 on the week with 16 carries for 143 yards on the ground and 6 catches on 6 targets for 61 yards and 2 TDs through the air (61% snap share). Week 13 and 14 will not be easy for the Rams, as they face the Browns and Ravens, but will have much easier sledding in the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Commanders, the Saints, and the Giants.
Marquise Brown and Trey McBride were the top receiving options for Kyler in this matchup. Brown had 6 catches on 12 targets for 88 yards receiving, whereas McBride had 7 catches on 9 targets for 60 yards receiving. Both are dynamic pass-catching weapons and figure to remain Kyler’s favorite targets for the rest of the season.

Browns vs. Broncos - David Njoku has been the favorite pass-catcher for the Brown’s QBs over the past month. Over the last 4 weeks, Njoku has led the team (min. 10 routes run sample) in TGT % (25.3%), TPRR (0.29), receptions (23), and YAC (137 yds). Only Amari Cooper has produced at a similar fantasy level as Njoku over this span of time. Njoku went 6/9 for 59 yards receiving on 85% of the snaps in week 12 versus Denver.
Despite some of the best RB metrics in the league, Jaleel McLaughlin has seemingly taken the place of Marvin Mims as yet another highly talented and underutilized weapon on this Broncos offense. McLaughlin saw a season-low 3% snap share, whereas fellow teammates Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine each enjoyed productive days with 18 carries for 65 yards and 7 carries for 55 yards plus 1 TD respectively.

Ravens vs. Chargers - There may be a change of the guard at RB in Baltimore. Keaton Mitchell was hyper-efficient with the opportunities given to him (9 carries for 64 yards rushing and 2 catches on 2 targets for 25 more yards) and out-snapped Gus Edwards by 19% of the plays (46% vs. 27%). Edwards should still maintain his goal-line duties moving forward, and for that reason is still a viable fantasy option throughout the rest of the season. The following RB report will take a deeper dive at what makes Keaton Mitchell, and a select few other RBs, so impressive this season.    

RB Bona Fides

The Running Back position is a tumultuous asset, but still necessary for winning a championship. It is for this reason that this agency has based much of our RB Program on the same rigorous standards of our QB, WR, & TE selection process. The following sample will only include the top 45 RBs sorted by PP/G and data from weeks 1-11.

PPG (PPR) - Christian McCaffrey is by far the best fantasy-performing RB in terms of points per game (24.2 pts). De’Von Achane (20.6 pts), Alvin Kamara (20.5 pts), Kyren Williams (18.5 pts), Raheem Mostert (18.1 pts), and Jamyr Gibbs (18) round out the top 6 as the top producers so far this season.

The following categories give us a glimpse at the top pass-catching RBs this season

Routes/G - Kyren Williams has been utilized heavily in the Rams' pass offense with 27.7 routes per game. Alvin Kamara (24.9), Bijan Robinson (24.2), Rachaad White (23.2), Travis Etienne Jr. (21.7), and Antonio Gibson (21.4) all edge out McCaffrey, Barkley, and Gibbs for the top 6 spots. 

Targets/Route Run - Jaleel McLaughlin is the most heavily targeted RB in the league at 36% targets per route run. Alvin Kamara (33%), Javonte Williams (31%), Jaylen Warren (30%), Keaton Mitchell (29%), and Aaron Jones (26%) are just ahead of Gibbs for the top 6 ranking.

The following categories assist in finding the best rushers this year.

Yards Created/Touch - Keaton Mitchell has been one of the most efficient RBs at 7.38 yards created per touch. Achane (6.06), Gibson (5.87), Warren (5.46), Tyjae Spears (4.58), and McLaughlin (4.53) all rank in the top 6.

Evaded Tackles/G - Jaylen Warren and Breece Hall are both tied as the shiftiest RBs this season at 4.5 evaded tackles per game. Mostert & McCaffrey both averaged 4.4 tackles evaded per game, whereas Kenneth Walker III & Kyren Williams each averaged 4.3 tackles evaded per game. 

Yards After Contact/Attempt - The most difficult RB to bring down this year is Keaton Mitchell, who is averaging 8.35 yards after contact per attempt. Achane (7.26), Warren (4.44), Spears & McLaughlin (3.77), and James Conner (3.64) round out the top 6

Elusive Rating - PFF uses some of the above categories in order to formulate their elusive rating. So to no surprise, the title for the most elusive RB in the league goes to Keaton Mitchell at a 382.7 rating. Achane (281.4), Warren (198.5), Spears (168.7), McLaughlin (123.8), and Mostert (104.3) round out the top 6. 

Breakaway Runs & TDs - In terms of big play and scoring ability, there are a number of RBs that perform very well in both categories. McCaffrey is number 1 in total TDs and number 2 in breakaway runs. Mostert has the inverse ranking being number 1 in breakaway runs and number 2 in TDs. Saquon Barkley is tied with McCaffrey in breakaway runs, but tied for 12th in TDs. Gibbs is also 12th in TDs and is 4th in breakaway runs. Travis Etienne Jr. and Brian Robinson Jr. are both 4th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs. Achane and Walker III are tied for 7th in TDs and 10th in breakaway runs.

The following trio of categories are amongst the best in finding the most productive RBs.

Top 5 Snap Share - Kyren Williams has the highest snap share league at 85.9%, followed by McCaffrey (82.5), Barkley (80.8%), Etienne Jr. (78.6%), and Josh Jacobs (77.9%).

Top 5 Target Share - Kamara has the highest target share amongst RBs at 21.5%, ahead of McCaffrey (20.2%), Barkley (17.2%), Gibbs (16.3%), and Austin Ekeler (15.8%).

Top 5 Red Zone Touches - McCaffrey leads RBs with 56 red zone touches, followed by Pollard (47), Jacobs (40), Joe Mixon (36), and Walker III (35).

Christian McCaffrey is the only RB in the top 5 of all three categories, whereas Barkley and Jacobs are the only other RBs in at least two of the three categories.

The Agency will post an RB Bulletin next week based on this intel. 

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Greg Dortch - 39% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (Was a favorite target of Kyler last year and has been decent the last 2 weeks since Kyler’s return)

Week 10 Dossier

Show of Force

Enemies of the League

At this stage of the season, you can no longer view your league mates as friendly competitors all striving towards similar goals. There are allies, who will help you achieve your mission, and there are enemies who wish to destroy your goals. The highest-level threat known to the agency is the Asset Trafficker. These individuals specialize in the illicit trade of both high-value players and the stockpiling of draft picks. Their smuggling business includes leveraging early-projected draft picks, elite QBs, young WRs, bell-cow RBs, and ultra-productive TEs. Early after a league’s inception, these individuals will own up to half of the high-value draft picks heading into the off-season after the first dynasty championship. In the first year, they have built a network of relationships in which they have supplied the contenders with the “valuable” players they needed for their championship run. But in actuality, the contenders who fail to reach their ultimate goal now find themselves in the pocket of these Asset Traffickers who now own their entire future of draft picks. The most dangerous Asset Trafficker is the manager who not only stockpiles assets but also information. These individuals are known as Dynasty Lords.

These Dynasty Lords keep detailed records of every manager, and their strengths at each roster position. But most importantly, these individuals understand what their league mates desire. These league kingpins understand the market and aren’t afraid to make dangerous decisions in their pursuit of complete control. There are rumors that some of these Dynasty Lord’s surveillance is so encompassing, that they can see every trade executed by a manager, regardless if they are in league with them or not. There will be managers with a contender mentality who wish to police these types of individuals and limit their reach of influence. But the Dynasty Lord knows every one of their league mate's weaknesses. They will whisper doubt in the minds of their competitors. And lastly, they will continue to offer the promise of prosperity to their league mates if they continue to align with the Dynasty Lord’s goals. Anyone who doesn’t wish to accept these deals is met with terrible consequences. 

Usage Activity

The usage of a player is one of the most critical pieces of intel that we can use to our advantage. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Panthers vs. Bears - Since week 7, D’Onta Foreman has been 4th amongst all RBs in rushing attempts (66), yards (286), and rushing TDs (3). However, in weeks 2-5, in which Khalil Herbert received the lion's share of opportunities as the starter, Foreman was a healthy scratch. It remains to be seen what Forman’s opportunities will be once Herbert and Justin Fields return.    
Nothing further to report for the Panthers.

Colts vs. Patriots - Jonathan Taylor has full command of the Colts backfield, receiving 88% of the snaps and 23 carries (both season-highs for Taylor). Meanwhile, Zack Moss only received 1 carry on 16% of the snaps.
Since leading Patriots receiver Kendrick Bourne tore his ACL in Week 8 versus the Dolphins, Demario Douglas has led his team the past 2 weeks with 65 routes (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 59 routes), 16 targets (Hunter Henry is 2nd w/ 11 tgts),  139 receiving yards (Hunter Henry and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both for 2nd w/ 60 yds), 2.14 yards per route run (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 1.36 YPRR), and 98 yards after the catch (Smith-Schuster is 2nd w/ 26 YAC).

Texans vs. Bengals - After missing weeks 5 & 10 due to injury, and not registering a single yard in week 1, Tee Higgins has fallen behind Tyler Boyd in targets (50 - Higgins, 59 - Boyd), receptions (Higgins - 27, Boyd - 44), receiving yards (Higgins - 328, Boyd - 417), and YAC (Higgins - 118, Boyd - 186). However, despite these missed opportunities, Higgins has a higher aDOT than Boyd (Higgins - 11.3, Boyd - 7.3), air yards share (Higgins - 35.6%, Boyd - 19.2%), target percentage (Higgins - 19%, Boyd - 16.9%), targets per route run (Higgins - 0.23, Boyd - 0.18), yards per route run (Higgins - 1.54, Boyd -1.30), and is right behind Boyd in PPR Fantasy Points/G (Higgins - 10.3, Boyd - 10.9). All three of the primary Bengals WRs figure to remain strong considerations in all league formats whereas Trenton Irwin, Andrei Iosivas, and Charlie Jones (who is now back from IR) all carry value in deep best-ball formats.
Since returning from injury in week 6, Noah Brown has received 56%, 72%, 72%, and 75% of the snaps in his four latest contests, 24 total targets, 18 total catches, 419 total yards (leads the team over this span - Schultz 2nd w/ 267 yards), and 1 TD. Noah Brown, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz are all viable fantasy options in this high-volume & efficient offense. Robert Woods and John Metchie appear to have taken a backseat to their more explosive teammates. 

Saints vs. Vikings - Through 10 games, Alexander Mattison has 130 carries (12th in NFL), 461 rushing yards (23rd in NFL), 3.5 yards per carry (37th amongst RBs with a minimum of 50 carries), and 0 rushing TDs. Mattison’s receiving metrics are slightly better than his rushing production with 36 targets (9th amongst RBs), 24 targets (18th), 164 receiving yards (21st), and 3 receiving TDs (2nd-tied). After Mattison exited with a concussion, Ty Chandler took over the lead back duties and led the team with 15 rushing attempts for 45 rushing yards and 1 TD. In the high likelihood that Mattison is forced to his next game, Chandler will look to greatly benefit as the lead back in his sensational matchup against the league-worst Denver Broncos rush defense.     
Nothing further to report for the Saints.

Falcons vs. Cardinals - Since taking over the starting TE role in week 8 for the injured Zach Ertz, Trey McBride is 2nd amongst all TEs with 28 targets, tied for 2nd with 21 receptions, 3rd with 248 receiving yards, 4th in air yards share with 34.5%, and 5th with 103 YAC.
The petitions to feature Bijan Robinson as the focal point of this subpar Falcons offense were finally heard - Robinson received a career-high 22 carries, which he turned into 95 rushing yards and 1 TD. He has yet to produce the “blow-up” game everyone has been waiting to see from the talented prospect and has only had one complete game (week 2) in which he produced through the ground and the air.  

FM 10-01 Threat Assessment Report and Tactics

Agency Headquarters
Department of Intelligence & Field Operations
November 2023

The purpose of this Field Manual is to provide Field Agents with the necessary guidelines for enhancing the position of their league station. Standard Field Operations Protocol dictates that before any field operation takes place, there must be an assessment of the league’s “Show of Force.” An inventory of your arsenal of assets, the strengths and weaknesses of your major competitors, and trades with potential allies is critical in every championship campaign. The agency’s greatest resources in evaluating a league’s Show of Force are the various WoRP Capabilities. A summary of WoRP can be found in the second publication of this agency, Underdog Drafts - In The Mouth of Madness.  Review the following Field Manual carefully:

Chapter 1. Preliminary Measures - The first step in conducting a threat assessment is gaining security clearance to the intel necessary for this report (https://www.southharmonff.com/worp). The WoRP Worshipper Resources contain both the “WoRP” & “Simulator” tools necessary to conduct this assessment.

Section I. League Simulator - Using the League Simulator tool developed by Dr. Koopa, Director of the Mind Flayer Project, establishes a baseline of the hierarchy of fantasy strength in your league. If you operate in multiple leagues, begin your assessment with your strongest roster amongst your stations using the “Wins” column of the League Simulator. Devoting your initial resources to the strongest rosters is the best use of your time as a contender. Other considerations for which leagues to focus on include the roster(s) most in need of QB help in SF leagues - QB is the highest priority in these league types & nothing else can succeed until your signal-callers are secured.  

Section II. WoRP Calculator - Use the following parameters to operate the WoRP Calculator. If operating in a Best Ball league, use the “True WoRP Table” function. If operating in a Lineup league, use the “Adjusted WoRP Table.” Set the “Roster Efficiency” to “High.” Then run the program using the “Calculate WoRP” function. Once the data has been collected, use the “Download” function located below the list of assets.

Chapter 2. Filtering the Data - Once the data has been downloaded, open the file using a spreadsheet application to view the intel. 

• It is not necessary, but best practices would dictate deleting the “Team” & “Games” columns so that the most pertinent data for this report is easily viewable.

• Copy the remaining “Rank, Name, WoRP, WoRP/G, Position, PosRank” headers and paste the categories three times in the cells adjacent to the original columns of data as pictured below. Each of these four sections of category headers will correspond to a different position (QB, RB, WR, TE). 

• Highlight the original category headers containing the player data, navigate to the “Sort & FIlter” tools, then the “Filter” function. 

• First, using the “WoRP/G” filter, sort “Largest to Smallest.” Second, using the “Position” filter, sort “Z to A.”

• After the data has been sorted, highlight all of the cells associated with each position as pictured below, use the “cut” function, then paste your selected position under one of the vacant category headers you created earlier.

• Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.

• Once you have completed this task for each position, your spreadsheet should appear like below.

• At this stage, one can now delete the “Position” columns for each of the player positions to further simplify the viewing of the data. 

Chapter 3. Show of Force - After the data has been filtered and cleaned up for use, Field Agents can now begin taking a detailed inventory of their own, their major competitors, and their potential allies’ assets. 

Section I. Self Assessment - Beginning with your own roster, highlight each of your player assets in green as pictured above. 

Section II. Threat Assessment - Using the League Simulator, League Standings, and your own judgment, rank your top three competitors in the league. Beginning with the roster of your largest threat, highlight each of their players in the darkest shade of red. Highlight the players of your secondary and tertiary threats, each with their own shade of red. 

Section III. Potential Allies - An inverse of the Threat Assessment is gauging the players that are potentially available via trade who can improve your arsenal. Highlight in blue the players of managers who are actively tanking or are the most amendable to trading. It is essential to target the players who will either provide positional superiority or valuable depth. Do not waste resources in targeting players who rank below your threshold players (aka: Replacement Players - the players who are at the top of your bench and do not consistently make your lineup).

Section IV. Optimal Roster Construction - In the pursuit of the ideal roster, the “Roster Construction” function will help Field Agents further in identifying trade targets to address deficits in the roster & positions of excess that can be cut or traded away. Highlighted in Yellow above for each position is the number of players rostered followed by the optimal roster construction of that position.

Chapter 4. Conclusion - The Threat Assessment Report is an unbiased and powerful method to measure the strengths and weaknesses of the various players in your league. Use it to identify the best course of action and execute it.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Tanner Hudson - 7.1% rostership, spend up to 0% FAAB (Has been Burrow’s preferred TE target the last 2 weeks)

• A.T. Perry - 49.7% rostership, 0% FAAB (upside rookie profile, could see more snaps if Michael Thomas misses time w/ injury)

Week 9 Dossier

Nothing Left To Chance

Privileged Info

You’re walking the winding brick path by the river, needing to clear your head of the chaos back at the agency. As you stare out at the yellow glow of the street lamps reflecting off the pitch-black water, your phone vibrates. “Can you meet? Harbor Hotel. Rm 507. 30 minutes.” There is never a time for rest at this point in the season. You quickly dart through the side streets and alleys to make sure you aren’t being tailed - can’t afford to blow the cover of your best informant. You take one last look down the hall before you knock on the door, ‘507’ displayed in bold brass. “It’s me,” you mumble. The door swings open and you walk over to the table covered with glossy photos and stapled documents. “The league has certainly been busy with all of these recent trades. A lot of panic with injuries. But that’s not why you interrupted my late-night stroll, is it?” The informant smiles and shakes his head. Opening up his jacket, the informant pulls out a pen and begins to unscrew the barrel. Tucked inside, the informant pulls out a tiny scroll of paper and hands it to you. You read the four names quickly before you pocket the paper. “This can be pretty massive, are you sure about this?” The informant replies “It’s reliable. Those assets can turn the tide.” You twist the doorknob to leave and say “I’ll stay in touch.”

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can have massive implications for how we attack the season. Here are some points of interest worth monitoring:

Titans vs. Steelers - Since week 5, both DeAndre Hopkins and Diontae Johnson rank inside the top 12 in fantasy points per game at 17.6 and 17.1 respectively. Over that same span, Hopkins has been 3rd in average depth of target (16.5), Diontae is 7th in target share (29.6%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.30), 9th in 1st-read percentage (36.9%), and both rank in the top 10 in air yards share (Hopkins - 45.8%, Johnson - 44.2%). However, Brett Kollmann’s recent breakdown of the Steeler’s offense will give pause to anyone considering a piece of it.

Vikings vs. Falcons - Fear of the fallout from Kirk Cousin’s injury quickly subsided following Joshua Dobbs’ thrilling debut as the Vikings’ QB. Like a player with no country, the mercenary signal-caller quickly got to work, going 20/30 for 158 yards passing, and 2 TDs, with an additional 7 carries for 66 yards on the ground and 1 rushing TD. T.J. Hockenson stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of Dobb’s arrival: Hockenson led his team in targets (12), receptions (7), and yards (69) in week 9. In weeks 6-9, Minnesota has been 2nd in the league in TE Fantasy Usage (16.1 expected fantasy points - stat courtesy Hayden Winks, Underdog).
The fantasy atrocities continue in Atlanta, in particular with Bijan Robinson, who on average is receiving 11.13 carries & 5.13 targets a game (not including week 7’s one-touch game). Robinson has 13 Red Zone touches so far this season (32nd amongst RBs).

Seahawks vs. Ravens - Gus Edwards has scored 6 TDs over the past 3 games, the most of any RB over that span. His 7 total TDs are behind only Raheem Mostert (11) and Christian McCaffrey (9). Though he did score twice in week 9, Gus only received 5 carries and 18% of the snaps in this matchup. That was due in large part to Keaton Mitchell’s impressive performance: 9 carries for 138 rushing yards and 1 TD on 18% of the snaps. Mitchell is now only behind De’Von Achane with a 93.0 PFF Run Grade. For reasons unknown, Justice Hill led the backfield in snap percentage (63%) and carries (13) versus the Seahawks.
Too many high-value picks were sacrificed needlessly over the off-season to acquire the services of Geno Smith, who now barely qualifies as  QB 2 in fantasy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to make strides - 6/7 for 63 yards on an 82% snap share (the highest snap% so far this season). Given Geno’s disappointing season and competition for touches with D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett, Smith-Njigba remains a prime “sell” piece on any contender.

Rams vs. Packers - In his likely most healthy game since week 1, Aaron Jones dominated the backfield with 20 carries for 73 rushing yards and 1 TD, with an additional 4/6 for 26 yards through the air on 57% of the snaps (the highest % all season). Aaron Jones remains one of the highest-upside RB 2s for the rest of the season if he receives this type of usage moving forward. 
With Carson Wentz now entering the playing arena for the Rams, there is hope contenders will not need to liquidate their Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua shares to secure a title. 
     
Buccaneers vs. Texans - C.J. Stroud’s 30/42 for 470 yards and 5 TDs is the greatest rookie QB performance this agency has ever witnessed. Stroud is already being ranked as the QB 7 on KTC and the QB 9 on FantasyCalc. Without an elite pass-catcher or run game to take the pressure off the young signal-caller, there is no QB in the league playing better with the cards dealt to him. Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell were the primary targets of Stroud: Schults - 10/11, 130 yards, 1 TD. Dell - 6/11, 114 yards, 2 TDs. Schultz is currently 2nd amongst TEs in Fantasy Points/G (16.5), 3rd in target share (24.2%), tied for 1st in Targets Per Route Run (0.32), 3rd in Yards Per Route Run (2.72), and tied for 3rd with 10 red zone targets.
Rachaad White and Cade Otton also enjoyed career-best days in this matchup: White - 20 attempts for 73 rushing yards plus 2 TDs, with 4/4 for 46 receiving yards on 80% snap share (good enough for RB1 of the week), Otton - 6/9 for 70 receiving yards plus 2 TDs on 100% of the snaps (TE3 of the week).

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The data used does not include week 9 and the WoRP values are based upon 12 teams, start 11, 30-player rosters, 6 pts per Passing TD, and Lineup leagues. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

QB

Tua Tagovailoa - Field Commander Tua Tagovailoa ranks in the top 5 in 9 out of the 15 major categories our agency uses to evaluate QBs (the next closest QB is Josh Allen with 8/15 categories). This includes the best in the league at adjusted yards per attempt (9.3), big-time throw percentage (7.1%), PFF Grade (90.2), Supporting Cast (77.25), and QBR (108.8). The 5th best WoRP QB this season, Tua is playing well above his 8th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 9th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. But perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Tua is pairing his services with the best player in all of fantasy this year to create the most lethal combination, Tyreek Hill (& De’Von Achane). Miami has a difficult rest-of-season schedule, but our analysts anticipate several shoot-outs to take place over the fantasy playoffs. Coming off one of his worst performances of the season and heading into a bye-week, sending 2x 1st-round + 2x 2nd-round picks worth of value and up to 3x 1st-round picks is merited in acquiring the young QB’s elite talent.

Jared Goff - Represents the most ideal QB 2 in SF leagues. Goff is tied for the 3rd highest pass attempts in the league (36.57/G) and has the 2nd highest adjusted completion percentage (80.4%). His volume of passes makes his 1.8% turnover-worthy plays that much more impressive with how little he puts the ball in harm's way (2nd best in the NFL). The Lions have surrounded Goff with one of the best ensembles of talent in the league (2nd only to Miami), including arguably the best positional trio in the league - St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs. Detroit’s rest-of-season schedule is one of the best for any QB in fantasy (Starting in wk-12: GB, @NO, @CHI, DEN, @MIN, @DAL). The 8th best WoRP QB this season, Goff is outperforming his 16th most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 15th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round + 2nd-round pick for the stability & upside of Jared Goff. 

Russell Wilson - A Public Enemy the past two seasons, Russell Wilson has far outperformed his dynasty perception. His 79% adjusted completion percentage and 101.7 QBR are amongst the best scores in the league. The Broncos' rest-of-season schedule is one of the more favorable through the fantasy playoffs (starting in wk-13: @HOU, @LAC, @DET, NE, LAC).  The 10th best WoRP QB this season, Wilson is playing beyond his 21st most valuable dynasty QB ranking on FantasyCalc and 25th place ranking on KeepTradeCut. Coming off of his bye-week, be confident in sending up to a 1st-round round pick and riding with Russell Wilson as your QB 2.

Baker Mayfield - Unremarkable in nearly every major category, Baker Mayfield flies under the radar as the perfect QB 3 with a sneaky upside. At 35.14 pass attempts/G (11th in NFL) and 0.55 neutral pass rate (7th), Mayfield receives plenty of opportunities to operate within the 5th-best offensive ensemble in the league. The Mayfield and Mike Evans stack is perhaps the best value stack in fantasy this year. The Buccaneers' rest-of-season schedule is far from intimidating (@IND, CAR, @ATL, @GB, JAX, NO). As the 18th-best WoRP QB and not costing more than an early 2nd, Mayfield is the perfect tier-down candidate and insurance policy heading into the playoffs considering his QB23 price on KTC and QB27 ranking on FantasyCalc.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Carson Wentz - 12% rostership, up to 10% FAAB (could fill in on dynamic, McVay-led offense)

• Noah Brown - 35% rostership, 3-5% FAAB (better for best ball)

• Kyle Philips - 24% rostership, spend up to 1% FAAB (will compete as the 2nd receiving option behind Hopkins week-to-week)

• Khadarel Hodge - 4% rostership, 1% FAAB (a decent BB option with London & Hollins banged up)

• Ty Chandler - 38% rostership, 0-1% FAAB (now the primary backup with Akers done)

Week 8 Dossier

At The Edge Of The Unknown

Assignment

In our line of work, missions are not accomplished through luck. Though there are a multitude of variables that cannot be accounted for and circumstances that are impossible to foresee, victory comes to those who have prepared for it. Part of this planning includes an honest assessment of your chances. “What is your team’s record, where is your team in the standings, and how does it stack up with other teams in terms of points scored?” are all necessary in order to establish a baseline. But beyond these preliminary questions is an inventory of your arsenal: “Do you have a strong QB duo and a serviceable backup in your superflex league?” “Can your WR corp keep up with the best in your league?” “Do your RBs have any consistency or upside?” “Is your TE serviceable?” “How many injuries can you sustain to each position before you are out of the race?” And lastly “Do you have assets that can be liquidated to help strengthen your position?” At this Agency, we train our agents to work toward outcomes that can be all but assured. This involves not only overwhelming your competition with your resources but perhaps the most important factor is timing. 

Injuries are a critical aspect of timing because depending on the position, your urgency to act on the injury should be directly correlated to how finite the position is and if your competition has better means of acquiring the asset before you do. So for example, if there is a critical injury to a manager’s QB room, and there is only one difference-making QB available for trade from a rebuilding team, that rebuilder’s QB has become a high-priority asset. But if the cost of that high-priority QB is too prohibitive because no contender has the means to acquire the asset, then it becomes a lower-priority target. Consider these scenarios if there is any room for your competition to gain a significant advantage over you. If your arsenal is lacking and there are little to no opportunities for improvement, then it is important to consider pivoting toward rebuilding. In Dynasty, there is always the option to retreat and gather resources until the circumstances are favorable - do not blow your cover or get burned by chasing something that was never there.

Usage Activity

A player’s usage can prove valuable in determining our season-long plans and moves. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Buccaneers vs. Bills - Despite their relatively solid usage and snap counts, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White each only have 1 TD so far this season, and can not be trusted as anything more than floor FLEX options on one of the worst Red Zone teams in the league (31st). 
The 65% snap share that Khalil Shakir received in week 8 is the highest snap count any slot WR has received for the Bills this season. Shakir turned this opportunity into 6 catches for 92 receiving yards. It remains to be seen if Shakir can cement this usage into future opportunities. 

Texans vs. Panthers - Chuba Hubbard has dominated the Panthers backfield over the last two contests - Wk 6: 19 carries on a 77% snap share, (Wk 7: bye week), Wk 8: 15 carries on a 67% snap share. Miles Sanders - Wk 6: 7 carries on a 46% snap share, Wk 8: 2 carries on a 18% snap share. Though Miles Sanders is battling through a shoulder injury, he may not be able to regain the lead back position from Hubbard once healthier. But perhaps the more important question is “Does it matter?” Chuba may be worth considering, but at cost, the best value and the only Panther worth rostering for contenders remains Adam Thielen.
Returning from injury after their bye week, Tank Dell led all Texans WRs in snap share with 78%. Unfortunately, C.J. Stroud struggled in this contest with only 140 yards total passing.

Rams vs. Cowboys - Through Tony Pollard’s first 7 games in 2022, he amassed 375 yards on 67 carries (2 TDs) and 105 yards receiving on 11 catches from 18 targets. In 2023, Pollard has 423 yards rushing on 108 carries (2 TDs) and 178 yards receiving on 26 catches from 30 targets through 7 contests. Even though Pollard isn’t producing at the same efficiency as he was last year with Ezekiel Elliot out of the picture, he is luckily still receiving usage that will hopefully bear fruit soon.
The severity of Matthew Stafford’s injury will have widespread implications on a number of key players for this Rams’ offense. Hold your position on these players until more information can be gathered.

Vikings vs. Packers - Unlike the Rams situation, the implication for Vikings players is drastically clear: turn and burn em. Minnesota will explore the options available on the quarterback market, but unless the legendary Case Keenum can be wrestled away from the Houston Texans’ bench, we do not foresee another Minneapolis Miracle saving the Vikings’ season.
The Packers' offense is far from ideal, ranking in the bottom half of the league in most statistical categories. Their ensemble is chock-full of talented skill players, and yet it is difficult to start any of them in a lineup league. Until the run game improves and the receivers become acclimated with the offense, there will be too much on Jordan Love’s shoulders to handle.

Patriots vs. Dolphins - There wasn’t a wider discrepancy of offensive talent in week 8 than what was on display during this matchup. As pathetic as it may sound, Kendrick Bourne was the Patriot’s most consistent player on offense that was producing throughout the season, and now he is lost. Hoping Demario Douglas will step up to fill Bourne’s void is a lot to ask of the rookie. 
Buy De’Von Achane now while he is injured and can be acquired for a single 1st-round pick.

Chiefs vs. Broncos -  In the seven years Patrick Mahomes has been in the NFL and the six years he has held the office of Chiefs’ starting quarterback, he has never played as poorly as he did Sunday versus the Broncos - 24/38 for 241 yards, 2 INTs, & 1 Fumble Lost. We are working behind the scenes in sending Kansas City profiles on every WR not currently playing for the Chiefs (including active duty, retired, XFL, Canadian, alive, etc.) in hopes they will bolster their receiver group ahead of the trade deadline.
Russell Wilson managed to throw 3 TDs on only 12 passes against the Chiefs. Javonte Williams’ 27 carries for 85 yards rushing and 13 receiving yards plus 1 TD (63% snap share) was his best fantasy performance since week 14 in 2021 versus the Lions.

QB Bona Fides

The Quarterback position remains the agency’s highest priority target in SF. Make no mistake, the war will be won or lost depending on this position in the coming weeks. The following QB credentials (weeks 1-7 data) have been heavily vetted by our intelligence officers and are currently in the hands of our top strategists. The agency will release a QB Bulletin a week from today based on these bona fides. Until then, cultivate trade talks with managers and position yourselves to execute once given the green light. This data sample does not include the Tennessee QBs (hurt/bad/small sample), the Arizona QBs (waiting for Kyler Murray), Zach Wilson (bad), or Kirk Cousins (hurt).

Attempts/G - Ideal stat to consider for leagues that award volume. Joe Burrow is #1 in this category at (38.67 att/g). Patrick Mahomes is #2 (38 att/g). Jared Goff, Sam Howell, and Matthew Stafford are all tied for #3 (36.57 att/g)  

Neutral Pass Rate - Target the QBs on teams that pass on 1st & 2nd downs at the highest rate. The Bengals and the Chiefs are tied for the highest neutral pass rate in the league (0.6). The Eagles have the 3rd highest rate (0.59) and the Dolphins have the 4th highest (0.57). 

Adjusted Completion % - Accounting for passes thrown on target and drops, accuracy remains one of the best metrics in measuring a QB’s quality, especially in leagues that award completions. Geno Smith remains one of the most accurate QBs in the league (81.9%), followed by Jared Goff (80.4%), Tua Tagovailoa (79.8%), Josh Allen (79.5%), Lamar Jackson (79.3%), and Russell Wilson (79%).

Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) - A statistic that not only accounts for the average yards of a pass but weighs passing touchdowns (passing yds + 20) and interceptions (passing yds - 45) as well. Tua has the best AY/A in the NFL (9.3), followed by Brock Purdy (9.1), C.J. Stroud (8.4), and Lamar Jackson (8.2). 

Average Depth of Target - Who is attempting the biggest plays downfield in the league? Jordan Love has the top ADOT in our sample (9.8 yds), followed by Deshaun Watson (9.5 yds). Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are tied for the 3rd best ADOT (9.2 yds).   

Big Time Throws % - “A pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window” (PFF). Tua has been the top operator in terms of money throws (7.1%), followed by Matthew Stafford (7%), Jalen Hurts (6.7%), and Lamar Jackson (6.5%). 

Turnover Worthy Plays % - “A pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling” (PFF) - particularly important for leagues that heavily penalize turnovers. Joe Burrow has been the most secure QB so far this season in terms of turnovers (1.5%), followed by Jared Goff (1.8%), Matthew Stafford (2%), Josh Allen (2.1%), and Dak Prescott (2.2%). Gardner Minshew has been the riskiest QB in the NFL in terms of protecting the ball (7.9%).

PFF Pass Grade - No surprise that Tua has received the highest marks amongst his peers (90.2). Josh Allen (87.7), Lamar Jackson (85.3), Jared Goff (83), and Patrick Mahomes (82.2) have all performed admirably while on assignment as well.     

Supporting Cast - The average score of the QB’s pass-blocking and receiving units combined. The Miami Special Forces Unit remains the best ensemble of top-tier operators in the league (77.25). The Lions have the second-best unit surrounding Goff (76.1), the Bills have the third-best unit around Allen (75.2), and the Eagles have the fourth-best unit supporting Hurts (73.8).

WoRP/G - The final credential is WoRP per game based upon a 12-team, start 11, 30-man roster, 6 pts per pass TD, Lineup SF league. Patrick Mahomes remains the biggest difference-making QB in SF leagues (0.172 WoRP/G). Josh Allen (0.167), Justin Herbert (0.162), Jalen Hurts (0.161), and Tua Tagovailoa (0.15) round out the top 5 for WoRP QBs.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Taylor Heinicke - 30% rostership, spend up to 15% FAAB (It is likely that Commander Arthur Smith will not make the switch at QB until it is too late for the Falcons, but he will make the switch eventually)

• Clayton Tune - 31% rostership, 1% FAAB (Don’t spend valuable FAAB on a 1-week fill-in who will get destroyed by Cleveland & then go back to the bench when Kyler takes over)

• Trubisky - 19% rostership, 1% FAAB (even if Pickett misses multiple games, Mitch will have to face Tennessee, Green Bay, & Cleveland - brutal matchups) 

Week 7 Dossier

Cloak & Dagger

Assignment

Operating as a field agent demands a calculated focus. This will often require a cold and detached inclination that is ready to make difficult decisions and necessary sacrifices for the good of your team. With half of the regular season complete, there are assets that are still retaining trade interest because of their dynasty value or volatile production, but overall they are jeopardizing your mission success with their lack of consistent/up-side production. Prove your resolve and make the difficult decisions before your operation is compromised.

Usage Activity

Please examine carefully the following usage activity reports we have gathered on players from week 7:

Jaguars vs. Saints - Travis Etienne has been elevated to a high-priority asset to acquire following his performance against the Saints - 14 carries for 53 yards, 2 TDs & 3/5 for 24 yards receiving on an 88% snap share. Etienne is 5th amongst RBs in fantasy points/game (19.7 PPR), 1st in snap share (80%), 2nd in routes run (178), and 3rd in total TDs (7). He is 6th at RB in WoRP/G in Lineup (0.154) & Best Ball leagues (0.135) (12 teams, start 10, 25-man rosters, PPR). Christian Kirk is another player who has slowly sparked the trade interest of the Agency after his 6/6 for 90 receiving yards & 1 TD performance on an 80% snap share in New Orleans. As a player who has lined up in the slot at 71.4% of his snaps, Kirk is often going up against less formidable nickel corners and capitalizing.
Since returning in week 4, Alvin Kamara has been 7th in the league in rushing yards (193) on 51 carries  & has led all RBs in targets (31), receptions (28), and receiving yards (141). Despite being less efficient than years past and the offense being wrought with issues, the usage Kamara has received is hard to ignore - 17 carries for 62 yards rushing, 12/15 for 91 yards receiving on 73% of the snaps.

Browns vs. Colts - Jerome Ford rushed for 74 yards on 11 attempts and scored a TD. This would appear to be a solid outing for the RB if it wasn’t for the fact that 69 of his 74 carries came on one play on the first drive of the game. Ford is a fine FLEX option, but given the scarcity of the RB market, he operates more as an RB2. He will be missed as he recovers from injury, giving Kareem Hunt an opportunity to serve as the lead back. Hunt may only be 75% of the running back that Ford is, but considering how imposing the Cleveland defense is, Hunt may not need to be much more in order to be productive.
Much has been said of Gardner Minshew being the preferred passing option for Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs for fantasy purposes compared to Anthony Richardson. If we focus on weeks 1 & 4 for Richardson, in which he played 100% of the snaps at QB, and weeks 3, 6, & 7 for Minshew: Pittman averages 6.5 targets, 4.5 receptions, 56 yards, 0.5 TDs with Richardson & 10 targets, 6.67 receptions, 89.67 yards, 0.33 TDs with Minshew. Downs averages 4 targets, 2.5 receptions, 32 yards, and 0 TDs with Richardson & 8.33 targets, 6 receptions, 67.67 yards, and 0.67 TDs with Minshew. It would appear that these claims are far from unfounded considering both Indianapolis receivers have been top 20 in targets, receptions, and yards in the weeks Gardner has started, and overall carry covert value.

Commanders vs. Giants - It is quite curious to see Chris Rodriguez receive only 1 less carry than lead back Brian Robinson and many of the attempts were on 1st and 2nd down throughout the game, but expectations must be tempered considering Rodriguez only saw 13% of the snaps.
When healthy, Darren Waller is one of the best TEs in the league - 242 routes run (4th), 48 targets (4th), 35 catches (4th), 379 receiving yards (2nd), 393 air yards (3rd), 11.3 PPR pts/g (5th). Waller is by far the best and only receiving option worth rostering from the Giants.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks - Seattle showcased their pair of rookie WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo in their win over Arizona: JSN - 4/7, 63 yards, 1 TD, 63% snaps / Bobo - 4/5, 61 yards, 1 TD, 75% snaps. If only Geno Smith was performing at the same level he was last year - 2022, wks 1-7: 1,712 yards passing, 11 TDs, 3 Ints / 2023, wks 1-7: 1,391 yards passing, 7 TDs, 4 Ints.
Trade for Marquise Brown or Michael Wilson before Kyler Murray returns.

Chargers vs. Chiefs - How does Travis Kelce’s start to the 2023 season compare to weeks 1-7 of the previous 3 seasons? 2020: 40/54, 501 yds, 5 TDs - 2021: 45/64, 533 yds, 4 TDs - 2022: 47/59, 553 yds, 7 TDs - 2023: 48/59, 525 yds, 4 TDs. Considering that Kelce has played 1 less contest in 2023 compared to the other seasons, he is having as good a season so far as he ever has in his career.
In weeks 4, 6, & 7, following Mike Williams's season-ending injury, Joshua Palmer is 12/22 for 270 yards compared to Keenan Allen’s 14/23 for 172 yards & 2 TDs. Joshua Palmer in seasons past may have been the most overrated WR, but he is currently producing as a FLEX WR and is under no threat from Quentin Johnston, who is MIA and presumed a lost cause. 

Agency Bulletin

The following assets of interest are in various considerations for your Rest-Of-Season Mission. Elite assets will not be included in this report given their formidable prices. The WoRP values are based upon 12 team leagues, start 10, 25-player rosters, PPR, Lineup, and Best Ball. Following the TE Interests intel from the Week 6 Dossier, we will focus on the TE position for this week’s bulletin. Do not engage in a trade until the following intel & parameters have been carefully reviewed:

The South Harmon Agency - Security Clearance will dictate access to this agency’s intel, but South Harmon operations are conducted on a daily basis with the objective of disrupting the fantasy space. Enroll in their academy as a recruit on Discord to gain access to their resources and train to become a top-tier fantasy operator. https://www.patreon.com/SouthHarmon
 
WoRP - Scoring settings & team needs will dictate which assets to pursue. WoRP is a valuable resource in not only establishing priority targets but also secondary and backup options if necessary. This resource can only be accessed through: https://www.southharmonff.com/worp

Managers to Target - Begin negotiations with managers who are on the opposite side of the standings. If your roster is rebuilding, prioritize trading with teams in the middle who are desperate to contend & whose picks have higher upside. Managers at the bottom of the standings will become more eager to trade away their players to acquire picks as the season progresses. If your roster is in the middle, negotiate with other middling teams - if you are unable to acquire players to contend, then adapt & pursue the other direction with acquiring picks.

Scouting Weeks 12-17 - Prioritize the players with the best matchups during the most critical stage of the season.  

FantasyCalc/KeepTradeCut - Where an asset ranks in the field ultimately determines its value. Dynasty Rankings and The Trade Database (which lists the most recent acquisitions of the asset of interest) are invaluable resources in leveraging suitable deals.

The Weekly Dossier -  This classified document carefully lays out weekly reports and directives based on intelligence compiled from the most advanced agencies in the field (NFL, NextGenStats, ESPN, PFF, FantasyPros, FantasyLife, PlayerProfiler, Underdog).

TE

Evan Engram is our highest priority TE to acquire. He is 2nd amongst TEs in targets & receptions, 3rd in routes run, and leads the league with 233 yards after the catch. He is 7th at the position in WoRP/G in Lineup leagues (0.068) and 9th in Best Ball formats (0.041). Evan Engram has been one of the most consistent TEs in the league, having only one week outside the top 10 this season in terms of fantasy production (wk 5 vs. Buf). Ranked as the TE10 on KTC & the TE14 on FantasyCalc, Engram can typically be acquired for less than a 1st-round pick. 

Dalton Schultz is the 8th TE in WoRP/G in Lineup (0.061) & 5th in Best Ball (0.053). Has 7 red zone targets in 6 games this season. The rapport between Schultz and C.J. Stroud has been strong in their last three contests. Ranked as the TE 16 on KTC & the TE13 on FantasyCalc, Schultz can be had for a 2nd-round pick.

Jonnu Smith is the 5th TE in WoRP/G in Lineup (0.078) & 11th in Best Ball (0.038). He is 3rd amongst TEs in yards per route run (1.87) and plays for a Falcons team that utilizes the TE position more than any other in the league. Ranked as the TE24 on KTC & the TE20 on FantasyCalc, Jonnu can be acquired for less than a 2nd-round pick.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, review your league’s previous waiver behavior to navigate the wire best. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

• Jake Bobo - 28% rostership, spend up to 5% FAAB (ideal for Best Ball rosters)

• Chris Rodriguez - 46% rostership, 3% FAAB (likely to fill Brian Robinson’s role if he were to ever get injured)

• Royce Freeman - 46% rostership, 0% FAAB (close to splitting snaps and touches with Darrell Henderson) 

Week 6 Dossier

Take a Chance

Assignment

The reports of those who have been wounded in the line of duty continue to mount every week. Soon, it will become apparent that the most capable agents are those with the depth and the draft capital to survive the unforgiving season. But perhaps the highest level of skill is found in operators who know when to risk acquiring an asset before the competition does. This can often be achieved by flipping an underperforming asset that carries dynasty value for an older, highly productive veteran. There will be many champions crowned at the end of this year who did not hesitate in forgoing youth and were willing to pay a little more than the competition for these league-winning assets. Read the following (and previous) dossier carefully for the full report on these trade targets.

Field Surveillance

There are teams that continue to separate themselves in their offensive prowess as the season develops. Each of these teams is commanded by a field general capable of distributing the ball to multiple targets downfield, even in the face of heavy opposition. These teams are the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, and Los Angeles Rams. These offenses are additionally grounded by a highly effective ground assault, but the Los Angeles Rams may have to take the skies with uncertainty surrounding Kyren Williams’ injury. Their competent defenses will keep them in the fight against their opponents, giving their strategists the choice to attack through the ground or the air, as well as ample opportunities to score off of turnovers. Acquiring assets on well-rounded teams is advantageous for mission success and these three teams have looked the part so far. Teams such as the 49ers, Bills, and Eagles each appear to be saving their strength for when it matters most, which is why it will be crucial to acquire assets from these squads as well (losing to lesser opponents can often serve as catalysts for Super Bowl caliber teams the rest of the way). The Ravens, Seahawks, Jaguars, Cowboys, and Bengals all have the talent to go far, but for unknown circumstances, their offenses still haven’t ascended to safe altitudes.

Usage Activity

The following reports are the latest from our field agents regarding week 6 action. Here are some points of interest worth considering:

Giants vs. Bills - James Cook (14 carries for 71 yds) and Latavius Murray (12 carries for 45 yds) both saw 49% of the snaps on offense; this is the 2nd time this season Cook has received less than 50% of the snaps (the other instance was against Miami). It will be difficult to trust Cook as anything more than a FLEX for the remainder of the season. Stefon Diggs is 4th in FPTS/G (23.2), 2nd in TDs (5), 3rd in receptions (49), 3rd in Yds (620), 4th in targets per route run (30%), and 4th in air yards (721). His final slate of opponents from week 12-17 include the Eagles, bye, Chiefs, Dallas, Chargers, and Patriots - all opponents he could terminate with extreme prejudice.
Saquon Barkley is the lone sliver of hope in the Wasteland of the Meadowlands; he had 24 carries for 93 yards rushing (4/5 for 5 yds receiving) on 78% of the snaps. If you find yourself trapped and in desperate need of points, look for other routes of escape before you turn to Darren Waller or Wan’Dale Robinson. 

Eagles vs. Jets - What is the difference between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in 2023? PPG (PPR): A.J. (20.2), DeVonta (12.2) - Target Share: A.J. (30%), DeVonta (23%) - Air Yards %: A.J. (46%), DeVont (33%) - YAC: A.J. (269 yds), DeVonta (70 yds) - Yds/RouteRun: A.J. (2.93), DeVonta (1.37) - Tgts/RouteRun: A.J. (25%), DeVonta (18%) - ADOT: A.J. (14.12), DeVonta (13.43 yds). It is a Flawless Victory for Brown over Smith so far this season. Defecting half of your DeVonta shares in favor of A.J. would be highly advantageous on any contending team. But exercise caution: if Brown were to miss time, DeVonta would dominate as the #1. D’Andre Swift had 10 carries and 10 targets versus the Jets for 58 total yards and a TD; he is now 11th in carries and 5th in targets amongst RBs.
The New York Jets Squadron have had their dream shot and have gone up against some of the best teams in the NFL. Their defensive capabilities kept things close in their dogfight versus the Eagles, making it possible for Breece Hall to remain involved throughout their contest; his snap-share continues to increase week by week (66% vs Eagles). The Met Life Air Wing is home base to two squadrons with elite RBs and nothing else to offer in terms of offensive firepower.  
  
Cardinals vs. Rams - Since returning to active duty in week 5, Cooper Kupp has been 4th amongst WRs in all of the following categories: targets (22), receptions (15), receiving yards (266), YAC (104), and yards/route run (3.86). Kupp has accomplished this on 97.2% of the snaps and appears to have maintained a strong rapport with his QB, Matthew Stafford. As encouraging as Kupp’s return to form has been, there are other candidates our agency would prefer to pursue given Kupp’s probability of re-injury and age.
Marquise Brown was well on his way to being a top-12 WR last year before injuries to both him and Kyler Murray derailed their season. In 2023, Hollywood is reminding us of his ability as a top-20 WR, and could be one of the best buys at this point of the season considering his value increase if Kyler were to return before the fantasy playoffs.

Panthers vs. Dolphins - It was quite admirable watching the Panthers launch a surprise attack on the Miami Special Forces and go up 14 points in the 1st quarter. It didn’t take long for Miami to execute a counterattack with three consecutive touchdowns and all but neutralize Carolina by halftime. One of the biggest surprises of 2023 is top 3 fantasy WR, Adam Thielen, who over the past month has risen 124 spots in dynasty rankings on Keep Trade Cut, including 43 spots at his position from WR 100 to WR 57. Gone is the opportunity to acquire Thielen for 2x 3rd-round picks, but he is still a value buy considering his WR 57 price. Our intel officers recommend either trading a 3rd-round pick plus another asset (preferably younger in order to attract ageist managers) or an underperforming player that ranks ahead of Thielen (such as Treylon Burks, Elijah Moore, or Jahan Dotson).
The only boomer asset overshadowing Thielen’s production in 2023 has been Raheem Mostert, the 2nd best RB in fantasy. Various RB metrics outside of PPG may not indicate Raheem to be an elite RB, but his speed, goal-line usage (leads RBs in total TDs - 11), and overall role as the lead back on an elite offense have all vaulted him into being an attractive fantasy asset. Managers holding Raheem will surely require a 1st-round pick, but we recommend appealing to potential Mostert sellers with a 2nd-round pick plus an additional asset or circling back to these managers later on in the season. 

Colts vs. Jaguars - Travis Etienne was not given much of a chance heading into the 2023 season - he had missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury, had an up-and-down year in 2022, and many believed that Tank Bigsby was a shoo-in to supplant Travis as the lead back some point this season. Etienne has quieted many of his doubters over the last two weeks as the RB1 and RB2 and has used his league-high 113 carries to elevate himself as the 3rd best runner so far this season. The only RB with a firmer stranglehold of snaps compared to Travis’ 79% (tied with Josh Jacobs)  is the recently injured Kyren Williams’ 83%.
The Colts fell behind quickly in this matchup after a slew of turnovers and punts, causing them to neglect their running led by Jonathan Taylor (8 carries) and Zach Moss (7 carries). Michael Pittman’s 9/14 for 109 yards was the receiving performance of consequence.   

TE Interests

The Tight End position is unlike any other asset operating in the field given the extreme difficulty in identifying the top prospects outside of the elite. It is for this reason that this agency has based much of our TE Camp on the same rigorous standards of our WR selection process.

PPG (PPR) - Several points per game separate Travis Kelce as the top agent (17.7 pts) and Mark Andrews (14.3 pts). Sam LaPorta (13.3 pts), T.J. Hockenson (12.7 pts), and Cole Kmet round out the top 5 as the best fantasy producers so far this season.

Targets Per Route Run - One of the largest gaps across our testing metrics was Kelce’s 32% TPRR, which is 7% higher than LaPorta’s and Jake Ferguson’s* 25% (*doesn’t include wk 6 data). Zach Ertz and Vikings teammates Hockenson and Josh Oliver each have a 23% TPRR. 

Yards Per Route Run - Travis leads this category as well with 2.4 yards/route run, followed by Noah Fant (2.17 Y/RR), Trey McBride (1.99 Y/RR), LaPorta (1.93 Y/RR), and Jonnu Smith (1.92 Y/RR).

Yards Per Team Pass Attempt - Finally, a category that Travis Kelce isn’t perfect at. Mark Andrews is the best TE in this category (1.95 yds), followed by LaPorta (1.82 yds), Kelce (1.81 yds), Kmet (1.52 yds), and Evan Engram (1.42 yds).  

Air Yards % - Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts both share the top spot in air yards percentage at 27%, followed by LaPorta (23%), Andrews (21%), and Kelce (21%).  

Average Depth of Target - Kyle Pitts follows up his air yards performance with having the best ADOT amongst all TEs (11.9 yds), followed by Andrew Ogletree (10.4 yds), Patriots TEs Mike Gesicki & Hunter Henry (9.3 yds each), and George Kittle (8.8 yds).

Yards After The Catch - Evan Engram runs away with this category with 188 yards after the catch. Kelce (147 YAC), LaPorta (141 YAC), Jonnu (138 YAC), and Hockenson (124 YAC) round out the top five.

Receiving Snaps (running a receiving route) - Tyler Higbee was the highest in this metric with 221 receiving snaps, followed by Dallas Goedert (216 snaps), Waller (212 snaps), Engram (210 snaps), and Hockenson (204 snaps).

Pass Blocking % (min 10 tgts) - Dalton Kincaid had the lowest pass-blocking percentage of tight ends with a minimum of 10 targets at 0.7%. Pitts (1%), Hayden Hurst (1.1%), Kyle Granson (1.2%), and Gesicki (1.5%) all see very minimum usage as blockers in passing situations.

Red Zone Targets - Jake Ferguson has the most red zone targets amongst TEs with 11 targets. Travis Kelce has 9 RZ targets, Ertz has 8, and Hockenson, Kmet, & Dalton Schultz each have 7.

TE Team Usage (Wks 2-5) - This final category encapsulates the expected half-PPR fantasy points based on each NFL team’s usage of their TEs. The Falcons lead the league in utilizing their TEs, with 20 expected ½-PPR pts. The Chiefs are second with 16.4 expected ½-PPR pts. The Commanders are third with 15.6 expected ½-PPR pts.

Overall - Through 6 weeks of of action, it is a tight race amongst the elite TEs Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, newcomer Sam LaPorta, and T.J. Hockenson, but unlike previous years there isn’t a massive gulf separating the top TEs from the rest. Even if Kelce appears less god-like in his production compared to previous years, he is still likely to finish as the TE1 in 2023.

Waiver Targets

Spymaster Vanek will provide the latest intel through his America’s Game report. In terms of FAAB bidding, it’s best to review your league’s previous waiver behavior to best navigate the wire. The waiver wire will become more bare as the season continues, especially in best ball formats.

Trade Assets

We have received reports that the Money Moves package Officer ATM was carrying to the rendezvous last week was intercepted and has fallen into enemy hands. Luckily, that package was a decoy and filled with high-valued players that disappointed in week 6. As discussed in the Usage Activity, Adam Thielen and Raheem Mostert are priority assets to acquire. Michael Wilson remains a target of interest for the same upside Marquise Brown has. Lastly, Curtis Samuel may not appear on many analytical radars, but he has dominated defensive backs in the last two weeks and appears to be a focal point of the Bieniemy Operation. 

Week 5 Dossier

Careless Whispers