Rookie Hit Rates
2024 Update For SuperFlex Drafts
You'll tell them the next thing will be better because it always is.
Draper - Mad Men
Image by T-Rock
The Hottest Ticket in Town
The line stretches around the block. Everyone outside the club is dressed to impress: the men in their smart suits stand pensively, their dates glimmer under the street lights with their faces aglow from the light of their phones. Desperation and regret hung in the air as I skipped the line to the front door. Without a word, I flash my invitation to the bouncer. It simply read “1.01.” Unclipping the velvet red rope and opening the large metal door, he says, “Welcome, sir. They are all waiting for you inside.” Immediately upon entry, it began to pour rain on the poor saps outside. “Just in time,” I whispered as I walked to the hostess stand. “Ah, Mr. Rock. Welcome! Right this way!”
We cruised through the dimly lit club, past the long marble and gold-accented bar, and around the other eleven VIP booths. Sitting in each of them were large men in pin-stripe suits, laughing with fat cigars in their mouths, spilling the whiskey in their hands. My booth was elevated above all the others, tucked away behind thick, dark curtains overlooking the stage that resonated with the easy and smooth melody of a 1940s jazz band. Lying back in the soft cushion of the couch, I sipped on my old-fashioned and smiled, “Nothing beats having the 1.01.”
Parameters
Last season, I launched my Rookie Series with a write-up on Rookie Hit Rates entitled Dynasty Blues. With this article, we can now add the 2024 Rookie class to the research.
https://www.southharmonff.com/articles/dynasty-blues
My data was sourced by Koopatroopa (@dynastyKoopa) with the following parameters:
Sleeper leagues
ADP of completed rookie-only drafts from actual leagues (not mocks)
2018-2024, specifically post-NFL Draft until the end of August each year
Superflex leagues, 9-13 starters
PPR Settings, Rankings Sourced from Sleeper Player History
A hit is at least one top-12 or top-24 season (PPR) at their position throughout their NFL career.
If you are interested in Hit Rates based upon WoRP, please take a look at DynastyBerry’s research and Mike’s breakdown of it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzBIj1Wkaco
The First-Round Lounge
The First-Round Pick has become the most important commodity in Dynasty Football. With a single piece of capital, the next generational prospect and potential 1.01 overall player can be selected during your Rookie Drafts. This was the case with last year’s class and QB Jayden Daniels. Up over 5% from the previous year for Top-12 Hits and 6% for Top-24, first-round picks do not carry the same “risk” they were once known for. You’re no longer gambling with your life inside the rustle and bustle of a shady underground speakeasy down in New Orleans. Instead, the early picks have elevated your drafting experience to the comfort and swank of a luxury penthouse in Chicago.
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Once a risky and volatile position, the hit rate for a Top-12 Wide Receiver has increased by 14% for 1st-Rounders since last year and over 21% for a Top-24 season, giving the position nearly equal footing as Running Backs. With players such as Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jerry Jeudy all breaking out with elite seasons, it impresses upon us dynasty players to remain patient with our rookie draft investments for at least two to three years.
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The total number of top-12 and top-24 seasons for first-round picks is up 42.86% and 34.48% since last year.
Key Takeaways:
Do not shy away from any particular position in the 1st Round
Focus on QBs and TEs in the 2nd Round
The Best And The Rest
Transitioning from whole rounds to tiers of rookie picks, not much has changed since last year. A total of 13 different players from the first round of rookie drafts experienced a breakout season (Top 12/24) last year. Compare this to the three breakouts from the 2nd Rd, three from the 3rd Rd, and two from the 4th Rd, and the talent gap becomes quite clear.
Image created by T-Rock
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Image created by T-Rock
Key Takeaway:
Having picks at both bookends of the first round STILL REMAINS the way to go.
Forget Your Troubles
When we examine the hit rates of individual picks, nearly every draft slot from 1.01 through 2.03 improved since last year, except 1.11, which suffered another blow with Jonathan Brooks’ unfortunate injury. Let us pray that the string of bad luck does not continue with the current consensus 1.11, RJ Harvey. We are in a golden era of fantasy football when the first 20 picks carry a nearly 50% chance of landing you a player that has Top-24 within their range of yearly outcomes.
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One More For The Road
The SuperFlex ADP of the 2018-2024 classes.
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The Dossier
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